FOREX: Greenback Weakness Extends, CHF Continues to Outperform Post-SNB

Semafor reports that Americans “appear increasingly convinced the economy is moving in the wrong direction”, despite President Donald Trump’s “insistence to the contrary.” 

• Semafor notes, “Even as inflation has largely remained in check and stocks have surged, the White House finds itself combatting a public narrative that blames the president for rising costs and a cooling labor market. Democrats across the country who ran affordability-focused campaigns trounced Republicans in elections last week.”
• An EY-Parthenon economist said, per the report, that the economy is “resilient on the surface,” but increasingly dependent on three “A-pillars, affluent consumers, artificial intelligence-fueled investment and asset price gains.”
• Conservatives, too, are growing frustrated with Trump’s approach, adds Semafor; The Federalist’s CEO said Trump should “ditch the foreign policy... and focus all his attention on the domestic economy.”
• With the US government set to reopen as soon as tomorrow, there will be focus on Trump's approval rating, which sank to a new low over the past two weeks. Silver Bulletin notes that Trump's approval is "down to -13.0. That’s the lowest it’s been during his second term. The share of Americans who strongly disapprove of Trump also hit a second term high of 45 percent yesterday."

Figure 1: US Adults on how Trump Politics have Affected the Economy

Source: Semafor, Pew Research Center

• Treasuries hold firmer - narrow range since marking session high late morning. Currently, the Dec'25 10Y contract trades +10.5 at 113-00.5 vs. 113-01.5 high - just below resistance at 113-02, the Nov 5 and 7 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a potential bullish reversal.
• Otherwise, a short-term bear theme in Treasuries remains in place. Attention is on a reversal trigger at 112-06, the Sep 25 low, and the 100-DMA, at 112-08. A clear break of these price points would expose a trendline support at 112-02. The trendline is drawn from the May 22 low.
• USD also holding narrow range since marking session low in the first half, Bbg $ index BBDXY -1.38 at 1,217.33 vs. 1,216.52 low.
• The DJIA, however, continues to climb: +5011.60 at 47,880.23 (+1.09%), outpacing SPX eminis (+0.28%) while the Nasdaq holds mildly weaker (-0.1%).
• Look ahead: Wednesday data limited to MBA Mortgage Applications at 0700ET, Tsy auctions: $69B 17w bill and 42B 10Y Note (91282CPJ4). Focus on multiple Fed speakers through the session: Williams, Paulson, Waller, Bostic, Miran and Collins.

• RES 4: 0.8865 1.764 proj of the Sep 15 - 25 - Oct 8 price swing  
• RES 3: 0.8848 1.618 proj of the Sep 15 - 25 - Oct 8 price swing  
• RES 2: 0.8835 High May 3 2023
• RES 1: 0.8830 High Nov 5 
• PRICE: 0.8801 @ 16:27 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 0.8763 Low Nov 3   
• SUP 2: 0.8756 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.8719 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.8656 Low Oct 8 and a key support  

The trend condition in EURGBP remains bullish and recent gains reinforce current conditions. The move higher has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 0.8835, the May 3 2023 high. Initial support lies at 0.8763, the Nov 3 low and just above the 20-day EMA, at 0.8756. Note that the trend is overbought, a pullback would be considered corrective.