POWER: EU Mid-End of Day Summary: Nordic Oct Power Rises Third Session
Sep-15 15:18
German front-month power futures held onto gains with higher EUAs and front-eek support amid a downward revision in wind output forecasts. Nordic front-month power futures rose for the third consecutive session, supported by revised down hydro balances and nuclear outage extensions.
- Nordic Base Power OCT 25 up 6.2% at 40.5 EUR/MWh
- France Base Power OCT 25 down 0.2% at 55.3 EUR/MWh
- Germany Base Power OCT 25 up 1.4% at 89 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 up 1.3% at 76.78 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas OCT 25 down 1.7% at 32.1 EUR/MWh
- TTF front month is softer today to reverse gains on Friday with the recovery of Norwegian pipelines supplies expected later this week amid ongoing Russia sanctions uncertainty.
- EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are rising for a second straight session, supported by returned confidence after last week’s decline on Germany’s push to delay the phase-out of free allowances.
- Germany has lowered its power demand forecast to 600-700TWh by 2030, from 750TWh previously expected according to the government’s monitoring report.
- Germany plans to phase out fixed-price subsidies for new renewable power projects and instead to pivot to market-based support.
- The Germany government is considering taking a 25% stake in the German business of TSO TenneT.
- EdF issued a strike notice for ta 24h-period starting on 17 September at 21:00 CET.
- The UK and the US will sign a new deal this week to get expand the UK’s nuclear capacity and to support private investment into clean energy.
- EdF’s 610MW Heysham 1-1 nuclear plant had an unplanned outage on Monday morning that is scheduled to last until 25 September.
- Axpo and energieUri are starting construction of two BESS project with 50MW of capacity in Switzerland.
- Sweden’s 1.13GW Ringhals Block 4 nuclear plant is scheduled to return one day later on 17 September at 18:00 CET.
- The planned maintenance at Finland’s 507MW Loviisa Block 2 nuclear plant has been extended by one day until 17 September 15:00 CET.
- Norway’s energy ministry has received two applications for the tender of floating offshore wind sites in Utsira Nord.
- Polish TSO PSE has awarded 7.58GW of capacity in the supplementary capacity auction for 2026 at PLN346.37kW per year.
- Poland’s Energa has signed an PLN3bln (€706.2mln) agreement with a consortium of Polimex Mostostal and Siemens Energy Global for the design and construction of the planned CCGT Gdansk power plant.
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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (U5) Follows Fade in Treasuries
Aug-15 22:15
- RES 3: 96.501 - 76.4% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 2: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 95.960 - High Apr 7
- PRICE: 95.710 @ 15:17 BST Aug 15
- SUP 1: 95.415/95.300 - Low May 15 / Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 95.275 - Low Nov 14 (cont) and a key support
- SUP 3: 94.707 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
Aussie 10-yr futures received a boost from the US Treasury rally that followed both the recent poor NFP print as well as Tuesday’s inflation number. While this impact faded into the close of the week, 10-year futures remain toward the top end of the recent range. To the upside, next resistance is at 96.207, a Fibonacci retracement point. Next support undercuts at 95.420 (pierced), the Feb 13 low, ahead of 95.275, the Nov 14 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish condition.
FOREX: USD Index Pinned to 50-dma as Putin Shakes Hands with Trump
Aug-15 20:49
- USD slipped against all others Friday, with a poor set of retail sales and Uni of Michigan sentiment numbers meeting a higher-than-expected import price index to further stimulate concerns over a stagflarionary phase in the US economy. The USD Index trades either side of the 50-dma which, notably, has begun to flatten out after maintaining a solid downtrend throughout 2025.
- JPY is the strongest currency in G10, extending the breakout and bearish conclusion of the consolidation phase in USD/JPY. Recent weakness puts the price through support drawn off the early August lows as well as 146.71, a key retracement. Price action this week marks a full reversal of the previously overbought condition, keeping the downside argument in focus.
- Anticipation ahead of the Putin-Trump meeting has reached fever pitch. Footage showing the Presidents shaking hands in Alaska has helped ease concerns over a hostile meeting, but it's the outcomes that will matter to markets - particularly as equities hold at alltime highs. Any signs of progress toward a ceasefire would be warmly received by risk sentiment - although both Trump and Putin cautioned against a optimistic outcome in comments to press.
- We noted earlier in the week the pressure building on USD/HKD, with price action not matching the pattern of HKMA intervention. That move extended overnight, and is still building at typing, putting spot down to new pullback lows of 7.8119 shortly after the European open. Overnight swap rates have surged further still Friday (hitting 1.7% at typing), well ahead of the 0.3% prevailing rate mid-week and should continue to support a recovery in HIBOR fixes ahead. Today's 1m HIBOR fixed higher by 41bps, hitting 1.45% for the highest fix since mid-May. It's these factors that should work against the HKD carry trade (selling HKD, buying USD), evident in the further tightening of the HKD forward discount today: down 975 points from as high as 1270 this month.
- Focus in the coming week shifts to Jackson Hole and Powell's comments on Friday. With the September meeting still in flux - any conviction toward tipping the board toward a rate cut at the next FOMC will be carefully watched, but it's a hawkish outturn that could be more consequential for markets, as OIS prices a near 90% chance of easing on September 17th.
MNI: US TSY TICS NET FLOWS IN JUN +$77.8B
Aug-15 20:00
- MNI: US TSY TICS NET FLOWS IN JUN +$77.8B
- US TSY TICS NET L-T FLOWS IN JUN +$150.8B
