BUNDS: EU CPI and US NFP are at the forefront Today
- A small downside Opening gap for the German Bund, but the contract pretty much trades at Yesterday's mid range.
- As noted on Monday, and you would have to ignore some of the wild ranges in early April (Tariff level announcement), It will be interesting to see how the price action develops going forward and if the 132.03 level holds, there's a potential for a rising wedge formation (bearish signal).
- For now the Opening gap is situated at 131.93, but the April high is the level to watch, before we mind the gap up to 132.40.
- Initial Support is seen at 131.33.
- All eyes will of course be on the US NFP/AHE, Manufacturing PMIs are final for France, Germany and the EU, so more focus on the EU CPI for the Morning session.
- ECB will Publish its Economic bulletin.
- SUPPLY: Belgium 2037, 2043 (won't impact Bund).
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Historical bullets
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 164.19 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 161.69 @ 07:11 GMT Apr 2
- SUP 1: 160.78 Low Apr 1 pivot support and the 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 160.06 Low Mar 13
- SUP 3: 158.90 Low Mar 10
- SUP 4: 158.00 Round number support
The trend structure in EURJPY remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. The pullback has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Pivot support is 160.75, the 50-day EMA. A break of it would signal potential for a deeper retracement. For bulls, attention is on 164.08, the Jan 24 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish condition and open 164.90, the Dec 30 ‘24 high.
FINLAND T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week
Finland has announced it will be looking to sell a combined E2.0bln of the following at its auction next Tuesday, April 8:
- the 7-month Nov 13, 2025 RFTB
- the 10-month Feb 13, 2026 RFTB
GILT TECHS: (M5) Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 93.79 High Mar 4
- RES 3: 93.01 High Mar 20
- RES 2: 92.55 61.8% retracement of the Apr 4 - 27 bear leg
- RES 1: 92.42 Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 4 high
- PRICE: 92.08 @ Close BST Apr 1
- SUP 1: 91.59 Low Mar 31
- SUP 2: 91.03 Low Mar 28
- SUP 3: 90.55 Low Mar 27 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 90.49 1.618 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
The short-term trend outlook in Gilt futures remains bearish, however, recent gains highlight a corrective cycle and this signals scope for a stronger recovery near-term. An extension would open 92.42, a trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 4 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the short-term bull cycle. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 90.55, the Mar 27 low.
