EURIBOR OPTIONS: ERZ5 98.0625/97.9375/97.8125 Put Fly Sold

The Swedish seasonally adjusted unemployment claims rate from the Public Employment Service (PES) was steady at 7.1% in July. This is the highest level since December 2021, and combined with another Y/Y fall in vacancies, continues to indicate slack is building in the labour market. 

• Vacancies fell 22% Y/Y in July (vs -13% in June, -24% in May), bringing the vacancies to unemployment claims ratio down to 0.20, the lowest since early 2021.
• 6.2k people were impacted by redundancy notices, up from 5.0k in June. The 3mma of redundancies has started trending higher again, though this is in part due to the spike to 8.2k redundancies in May (which some analysts have ascribed to the Northvolt collapse).
• The Riksbank is set to meet next Wednesday. Although labour market and activity have been weak, an uptick in inflationary pressures may keep the Executive Board on hold for now. Focus will be on the guidance ahead of the September meeting. Final July CPI is due tomorrow, with inflation expectations due on Friday. 

USV5 117c, sold at 40 in 5k.

• RES 4: 107.430 High Jun 13  
• RES 3: 107.360 High Jul 22 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 107.207 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 107.132 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 107.030 @ 07:16 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 106.990 Low Aug 12
• SUP 2: 107.993 1.500 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing 
• SUP 3: 106.964 1.618 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.928 1.764 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing

The sell-off in Schatz futures resulted in the bear trigger being pierced Tuesday: the 107.010 support gave way, signalling potential for further near-term losses. The move lower marks new contract lows, exposing projection levels layered between 106.928-107.993, which should act as a modest zone of support ahead of the March levels on the continuation contract. The 20-day EMA remains the upside level of interest, having defined the early August downtred, today at 107.132.