EURIBOR OPTIONS: ERU5 98.12/98.18 Call Spread Lifted vs. 97.93 Puts

Wards Automotive reports that light vehicle sales came in at 15.34mln (SAAR) in June, a 2% M/M drop from 15.65mln prior and the third consecutive sequential fall. 

• This was the worst month of sales in 10 months, after nearing 18mln sales in March in what was clearly demand pulled forward ahead of anticipated tariff impacts.
• It suggests continued sluggishness in vehicle retail sales, which are the largest category in the monthly Census Bureau retail report.
• In May's retail sales report, vehicle sales dropped the fastest in 11 months at 3.9% M/M (-0.6% prior), driving the overall 0.9% drop in retail sales. However note that they are not included in the Control Group category, which printed a solid +0.4% in May.
• There's no consensus yet for the June retail sales print (due July 17), though the Wards data will probably keep expectations subdued.

• EUR/USD: $1.1550(E2.1bln), $1.1600(E3.8bln), $1.1625(E1.2bln), $1.1650-60(E1.8bln), $1.1700(E2.7bln), $1.1720-25(E1.2bln), $1.1750(E1.1bln), $1.1775(E2.2bln), $1.1800(E5.1bln), $1.1825(E1.2bln), $1.1850(E880mln), $1.1900(E1.2bln)
• USD/JPY: Y142.00($1.1bln), Y143.95-00($1.0bln), Y144.50($540mln), Y145.00-10($1.2bln)
• EUR/GBP: Gbp0.8640-50(E787mln)
• AUD/USD: $0.6500(A$802mln), $0.6600(A$958mln)
• AUD/NZD: N$1.0775(A$597mln)
• USD/CAD: C$1.3600($1.7bln), C$1.3640-45($505mln), C$1.3690-10($736mln)
• USD/CNY: Cny7.4000($3.0bln)

US President Donald Trump posts on Truth Social, "I just made a Trade Deal with Vietnam. Details to follow!". When Trump first announced his 'Liberation Day' 'reciprocal' tariffs in April, Vietnam was in line for a levy of 46%, one of the highest rates of any country worldwide. Last week, Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said, while speaking at a panel event, that "I hope that you will see that the result [of trade talks] will come earlier than two weeks...Vietnam and the US share a deep understanding on tariffs... I hope that all the positive things will come for us."

• Despite Vietnam becoming an increasingly important geopolitical actor in Southeast Asia as one of the few countries not firmly aligned with the US or China, the White House risked a notable deterioration in its trade relations with Hanoi over the high tariff rate.
• The US has voiced concern that Vietnam has been acting as a transhipment hub for Chinese products, sparking a flurry of gov't action to halt the trade in Vietnam. Reuters also reports, "Additionally, Vietnam has expressed willingness to reduce non-tariff barriers and expand imports of U.S. goods, including planes, agricultural products and energy, though no formal purchase agreements have been announced."