EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply: W/C 7 July (1/2)
Jul-04 14:50
The EU is scheduled to hold a syndication in the upcoming week with the Netherlands, Austria, Germany, Portugal and Italy looking to hold auctions. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week of E29.4bln, up from E25.3bln this week.
- The EU will kick off its H2 issuance in the upcoming week with an EU-bond syndication. We look for at least one new non-green issue. The EU has pointed to new issues in H2 being focused on 5/7/15/30-year segments. We note that there was a 5-year new issue in July last year (alongside a 30-year tap) so think a 5-year launch is relatively likely here. If it is part of a dual-tranche syndication, a 15-year launch since June last year (and that is now around terminal size) so we would favour that as the most likely. However, there is also a decent chance that we get 30-year, although our base case is that comes later in the year.
- Netherlands will come to the market on Tuesday, looking to sell E1.75-2.25bln of the 3.25% Jan-44 Green DSL (ISIN: NL0015001RG8).
- Austria will also hold an RAGB auction on Tuesday. On offer will be a combined E1.725bln of the on-the-run 10-year 2.95% Feb-35 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A3HU25) and the 15-year 0% Oct-40 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A2KQ43).
- Germany on Tuesday will hold a E5bln auction to launch the new Oct-30 Bobl ISIN (DE000BU25059) on offer. We note that in its recent Q3 issuance plan the DFA decided not to increase the size of any Bobl auctions. The coupon will be confirmed on Monday.
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BOC: ECONOMY STILL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ITS TWO TARIFF SCENARIOS
Jun-04 14:49
- BOC: ECONOMY STILL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ITS TWO TARIFF SCENARIOS
- BOC'S MACKLEM SAYS HIGHER CORE PRICES `HAS GOT OUR ATTENTION'
CANADA: USDCAD Reaches Fresh Cycle Lows, BOC Presser Ongoing
Jun-04 14:43
- Weakness for the greenback following weaker-than-expected US ADP and ISM services prints continues to dictate general sentiment across the G10 FX space on Wednesday, although a moderately hawkish lean to the BOC decision is providing an additional tailwind for the Canadian dollar.
- As noted, the communications kept the door open to a cut but not emphatically (Gov Macklem's opening statement: "We also discussed the path ahead for the policy interest rate. Here, there was more diversity of views.”
- As such, USDCAD reaches fresh cycle lows below 1.3675 in recent trade, keeping bearish technical conditions firmly intact for the pair.
- Sights are on 1.3643 next, the Oct 9 low/Sep high. Below here, attention will be on 1.3579, the 1.5 Fibonacci projection of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing, before the September lows at 1.3420 will garner attention.
GILT AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week
Jun-04 14:40
The DMO has announced it will be looking to sell GBP4.25bln of the 4.50% Mar-35 Gilt (ISIN: GB00BT7J0027) at its auction next Wednesday, June 11.
