EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply – W/C 6 October
Oct-03 15:57
The EU will look to hold a syndication in the upcoming week, while Austria, Germany and Ireland are all scheduled to hold auctions. We think there is also scope for a potential Portuguese exchange auction. We pencil in issuance of E17.9bln for the week, down from E22.5bln this week.
- The EU will look to hold a syndication in the W/C 6 October. We lean towards a new 15-year issue given that the other three maturities mentioned for new issues in H2 have already been launched (5/7/30-year). The last time there was a syndicated tap in the 15-year area was in June with E5bln of the 3.375% Oct-39 EU-bond sold.
- Austria will kick off auction issuance for the week Tuesday 7 October. On offer will be a combined E1.15bln of the on-the-run 10-year 2.95% Feb-35 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A3HU25) alongside the on-the-run 30-year 3.15% Oct-53 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A33SK7).
- We note that Austria has already completed over 90% of its funding needs for 2025 and this auction and the September auction have been smaller than others held this year and we are likely to see a similarly small auction in November.
- Germany will then come to the market on Tuesday 7 October with E4.5bln of the 2.20% Oct-30 Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU25059) on offer.o
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EGB SYNDICATION: Lithuania Long 10 / 20-year LITHUN: Priced
Sep-03 15:53
Long 10-year:
- Reoffer: 99.698 to yield 3.662%
- Spread set at MS + 95bp (Guidance was MS+105bp area and revised to MS + 95-100bp (WPIR))
- Size: E1.0bln (in line with MNI estimate)
- Books closed in excess of E1.9bln (ex JLM interest)
- Maturity: 10 March 2036
- Coupon: 3.625%, Short first
- HR 100% vs 2.60% Aug-35 Bund. Spot ref 98.76 / + 91.9bp
- ISIN: XS3175946071
20-year:
- Spread set earlier at MS +140bp (guidance was MS+145bp area)
- Size: E750mln (MNI pencilled in E1bln)
- Books closed in excess of E1.6bln (ex JLM interest)
- Maturity: 10 September 2045
- Coupon: 4.25%
- HR 99% vs 2.50% July-44 Bund. Spot ref 90.23 / + 116.5bp
- ISIN: XS3175947046
For both:
- Bookrunners: Erste Group (B&D), HSBC and Societe Generale
- Settlement Date: 10 September 2025 (T+5)
- Timing: TOE: 16:24 BST /17:24 CET. FTT immediately.
From market source / MNI colour
US TSYS: Poised to Extend Session Highs
Sep-03 15:47
- Treasury futures are poised to extend session highs ahead midday - mirroring German Bunds ahead into the European close.
- Currently, the Dec'25 10Y contract trades 112-18.5 (+14) vs. 112-19 high, 10Y yield -.0446 at 4.2168, curves remain flatter: 2s10s -1.370 at 60.643, 5s30s -2.137 at 121.475.
- THe Dec'25 10Y contract is nearing initial technical resistance at 112-20.5 (Aug 28 / 29 highs. A breach of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the current bull cycle and signals scope for an extension towards the 113-00 handle.
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Sep-03 15:44
- EUR/USD: Sep05 $1.1550(E1.4bln), $1.1600(E2.1bln), $1.1740-50(E1.5bln), $1.1775-80(E1.1bln), $1.1800(E1.3bln); Sep08 $1.1600(E1.2bln)
- USD/JPY: Sep05 Y146.00($2.2bln), Y146.95-00($1.2bln), Y147.35-50($1.1bln)
- GBP/USD: Sep09 $1.3595-20(Gbp981mln)
- AUD/USD: Sep05 $0.6400(A$1.1bln), $0.6500-10(A$1.3bln), $0.6600(A$1.0bln)
- USD/CAD: Sep05 C$1.3850-60($1.0bln)
