EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply - W/C 14 April
Germany, Finland, Greece and France are all due to hold auctions in the upcoming week. There is also the potential for Austrian, Belgian, Finnish and Italian syndications in upcoming weeks, although the timing of these are more uncertain than usual given the recent market volatility. We look for estimated gross issuance for the week of E22.8bln, down from E32.6bln this week.
For the full MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix click here.
- On Tuesday, Germany will look to sell E4.5bln of the 2.40% Apr-30 Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU25042).
- Also on Tuesday, Finland will hold a conventional auction to sell a combined E1.5bln of the 0.125% Sep-31 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000507231) and the 2.95% Apr-55 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000566294).
- On Wednesday, Greece will hold a GGB auction. The bonds on offer and size will be announced the preceding day.
- Germany will return to the market on Wednesday to hold a 30-year Bund auction to issue E1.0bln of the 0% Aug-52 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102572) alongside E1.5bln of the 2.90% Aug-56 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2D012).
- On Thursday, France will hold a MT OAT auction to sell a combined E10-12bln of the 2.40% Sep-28 OAT (ISIN: FR001400XLW2), the new 2.70% Feb-31 OAT (ISIN: tbc) and the 2.00% Nov-32 OAT (ISIN: FR001400BKZ3).
- France will return later on Thursday to hold an IL OAT auction to sell a combined E1.5-2.0bln of the 0.60% Jul-34 OATei (ISIN: FR001400JI88), the 0.10% Jul-36 OATei (ISIN: FR0013327491), the 0.55% Mar-39 OATi (ISIN: FR001400IKW5) and the 0.10% Jul-53 OATei (ISIN: FR0014008181).
NOMINAL FLOWS: The upcoming week sees a single redemption of E16.2bln from an Italian CCTeu. Coupon payments for the week total E6.2bln of which E3.1bln are German, E1.1bln are Portuguese, E1.0bln are Italian and E1.0bln are Finnish. This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E0.3bln, vs E9.1bln this week.
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GILTS: Cross-Market Cues Still Guiding Moves
Gilts following cues from Tsys/broader cross-market swings, with a recovery from session lows fading, leaving benchmark futures ~10 ticks off session lows.
- The bearish technical backdrop in the contract remains intact.
- Little in the way of domestic drivers evident since this morning’s gilt auction and DMO provisional issuance calendar for the initial weeks of FY25/26.
- Yields 3.5-5.5bp higher across the curve, flattening seen.
- 10s ~4.5bp wider vs. Bunds on the day, last ~182.5bp. This comes after the early tightening failed to test the support cluster at 175/174.5bp.
- BoE-dated OIS shows ~53bp of cuts through year end, ~5bp less dovish on the day.
- The next 25bp cut isn’t quite fully priced through June (~24.5bp of cuts showing over that horizon).
- SONIA futures flat to -7.0.
- Nothing of note on the UK calendar until Friday’s monthly economic activity data, with the BoE in its pre-meeting quiet period.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Mar-25 | 4.457 | +0.2 |
May-25 | 4.266 | -18.9 |
Jun-25 | 4.211 | -24.4 |
Aug-25 | 4.073 | -38.2 |
Sep-25 | 4.035 | -42.0 |
Nov-25 | 3.944 | -51.0 |
Dec-25 | 3.923 | -53.1 |
FED: US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.175%(ALLOT 99.84%)
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.175%(ALLOT 99.84%)
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 27.50% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 3.28% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 69.22% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.29
CANADA: CAD Rates Hold Close To Session Lows After Macklem Q&A
- The BoC press conference has helped keep CAD rates close to hawkish lows seen after the earlier decision, to reverse the early rally ahead of the decision.
- CORRA futures are up to 5 ticks lower on the day in mid-2026 contracts. It translates to an implied terminal of 2.25% in the H6 (+4.5bps) for exactly at the lowest range of the BoC’s neutral estimates from 2.25-3.25%.
- As for the near-term, the Apr 16 decision is seen as roughly a 50/50 between another 25bp cut or holding at 2.75% in the mid-point of that range.
- Can-US 2Y yield differentials meanwhile have now climbed 8bps since the decision statement, back to little changed on the day at -142bps after sliding heavily ahead of the decision. Whilst still historically depressed, it’s off lows of sub -160bps in early February.
