EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply – W/C 13 October (2/2)
- Greece will potentially come to the market on Wednesday to hold a GGB auction. If it does, details would be confirmed on Tuesday.
- Germany will return to the market on Wednesday to hold a 30-year Bund auction. On offer will be E1bln of the 0% Aug-50 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102481) alongside E1.5bln of the 2.90% Aug-56 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2D012).
- Spain will then come to the market on Thursday to hold a Bono/Obli auction. On ofer will be the 1.25% Oct-30 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012G34), the 2.55% Oct-32 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012K61) and the on-the-run 10-year 3.20% Oct-35 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012P33). The auction size will be confirmed on Monday 13 October.
- France will come to the market on Thursday to hold an MT OAT auction for E9.5-11.5bln. Both the on-the-run issues will be reopened: the 2.40% Sep-28 OAT (ISIN: FR001400XLW2) and the 2.70% Feb-31 OAT (ISIN: FR001400Z2L7) alongside the 2.50% May-30 OAT (ISIN: FR0011883966) and the 0% Nov-31 OAT (ISIN: FR0014002WK3).
- France will return to the market on Thursday with an IL OAT auction. On offer will be the 0.60% Jul-34 OATei (ISIN: FR001400JI88), the 1.80% Jul-40 OATei (ISIN: FR0010447367) and the 0.10% Jul-53 OATei (ISIN: FR0014008181).
NOMINAL FLOWS: The upcoming week will see redemptions of E19.4bln: E11.4bln of a formerly 10-year Portuguese OT, E5.0bln from a formerly long 5-year EFSF bond and E3.0bln from a formerly 5-year Slovakian SlovGB. Coupon payments for the week total E3.6bln of which E1.1bln are German, E1.0bln Italian, E0.8bln Portuguese, E0.4bln from the EU and E0.2bln Slovakian. This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E14.9bln, versus negative E19.1bln this week.
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MNI: US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR +3.94M TO 424.6M SEP 05 WK
- US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR +3.94M TO 424.6M SEP 05 WK
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- US EIA: SPR +0.51M TO 405.2M BARRELS IN SEP 05 WK
- US EIA: REFINERY UTILIZATION WEEK CHANGE +0.6% TO 94.9% IN SEP 05 WK
SCANDIS: Fresh Strength For NOK and SEK Since the US Equity Open
Fresh strength seen for Scandi FX since the US cash open, seemingly a function of the broader dollar pullback post-US PPI rather than in response to any fresh domestic catalyst. NOK and SEK outperform the G10 basket on an intraday basis.
- USDNOK (-0.9%) is narrowing the gap to the June 17 low at 9.8615, clearance of which would expose the December 2022 low at 9.6982.
- A reminder that this morning’s August inflation report was stronger-than-expected, driving a 7bp intraday rise in 2-year NOK swap rates and placing heightened focus on tomorrow’s Q3 Regional Network Survey. A Norges Bank hold next week is still possible if that survey is hawkish.
- USDSEK meanwhile has registered a fresh multi-year low, with support seen at 9.2307 (March 2022 low).
- Tomorrow’s Swedish calendar includes the final August inflation report, details of which will be important to judge the likelihood of a September rate cut. With Riksbank Deputy Governor Jansson not coming across as overtly dovish following the lower-than-expected flash release last week, the Executive Board could decide to keep rates steady in September, and save some dry powder for later this year if required.
- Riksbank Governor Thedéen also speaks tomorrow at 1200BST. The topic of the speech is banking sector liquidity.
GLOBAL: MNI Tech Trend Monitor - Highlighting Key Longer-Term Trends
MNI Tech Trend Monitor: https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/MNITechTrendMonitor.pdf
We introduce the MNI Tech Trend Monitor - This document highlights a selection of key longer-term trends that we have identified in markets that could be reaching inflection points, trend reversals/extensions or technically significant levels.
Covering:
- UK Gilt 10y Yield
- UK Gilt 30y Yield
- ICE USD Index
- Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E)
