EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply (2/2)
- Spain will come to the market on Thursday to hold a Bono/Obli/ObliEi auction. On offer will be the on-the-run 3-year 2.40% May-28 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012O59), the on-the-run 10-year 3.20% Oct-35 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012P33) and the short 20-year 3.45% Jul-43 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012K95) alongside the 1.00% Nov-30 Obli-Ei (ISIN: ES00000127C8). The auction size will be confirmed on Monday.
- As we also expected in the announcement, the auction scheduled for 21 August was cancelled (in line with precedent in recent years).
- France will conclude issuance for the week, also on Thursday by holding a LT OAT auction for E8.5-10.5bln. This is a slightly smaller auction than the E10-12bln range we have seen recently (expected, given that it is August) but what is perhaps a bit less expected is that all of the OATs on offer are off-the-run issues: the 1.25% May-34 OAT (ISIN: FR0013313582), the 1.25% May-36 OAT (ISIN: FR0013154044), the 0.50% May-40 OAT (ISIN: FR0013515806) and the 4.00% Apr-55 OAT (ISIN: FR0010171975).
NOMINAL FLOWS: The upcoming week sees E0.7bln of redemptions, of which E0.6bln is from a formerly 3-year LithGB, while coupon payments total just E0.2bln. This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E24.4bln, versus negative E26.2bln this week.
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GBPUSD TECHS: Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 1.3852 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3835 High Oct 20 2021
- RES 2: 1.3800 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 1.3789 High Jul 01
- PRICE: 1.3606 @ 14:45 BST Jul 2
- SUP 1: 1.3586/80 20-day EMA / Intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.3439 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3338 Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low
- SUP 4: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support
A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and a fresh cycle high Tuesday reinforces bullish conditions. This maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Today’s move lower appears to be a correction. Support to watch lies at 1.3586, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback.
GILTS: 5s30s Capped By 140bp
5s30s unable to break decisively above 140bp at this stage, but still on track for the highest close of ’25.
- Looking a little more granularly, the next major point of upside interest beyond 140bp is probably located at the April intraday high (147.2bp according to BBG), although the lack of liquidity apparent at that time brings into question the true intraday high in the spread.
EURGBP TECHS: Bull Cycle Accelerates
- RES 4: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 3: 0.8738 High Apr 11 high and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8694 High Apr 14
- RES 1: 0.8661 Intraday high
- PRICE: 0.8655 @ 14:38 BST Jul 2
- SUP 1: 0.8521/8486 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 0.8459 Low Jun 11
- SUP 3: 0.8407 Low Jun 4
- SUP 4: 0.8356 Low May 29 and the bear trigger
The trend condition in EURGBP remains bullish and this week’s gains together with today’s acceleration, reinforce current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position - highlighting a dominant uptrend. 0.8648, 76.4% of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg, has been pierced. A continuation higher would open 0.8738, the Apr 11 high and a key resistance. Support to watch lies at 0.8521, the 20-day EMA.
