EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply
Aug-08 14:57
Finland and Germany are due to hold auctions in the upcoming week. We pencil in issuance of just E6.5bln in the week, down from E24.5bln this week.
- Finland will kick off issuance for the week on Tuesday with a conventional auction. On offer will be up to a combined E1.5bln of the 3.00% Sep-35 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000587415) and the 0.25% Sep-40 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000440557).
- Germany will come to the market on Wednesday with E5bln of the 10-year 2.60% Aug-35 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z056).
- Cancelled auction: The MEF has announced that it will not hold the 3/7/15+ year BTP auction that had been scheduled for 13 August. This is in line with recent convention and is not unexpected. The MEF noted that this decision was taken “considering the cash management activity”.
NOMINAL FLOWS: The upcoming week sees E43.9bln of redemptions, of which E30.5bln is from a formerly 10-year Bund and E13.4bln from a formerly 3-year BTP. Coupon payments for the week total E6.3bln of which E5.5bln are German and E0.8bln are Italian. This leaves estimated net flows for the week strongly negative at negative E43.8bln, versus positive E23.5bln this week.
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GILTS: Flatter, Paring Most Of Yesterday's Curve Steepening
Jul-09 14:55
The bid in U.S. Tsys, weakness in crude and move away from highs in e-minis have provided support for gilts, with futures trading to fresh session highs of 91.92, but ultimately remaining within the confines of yesterday’s range.
- Bulls will want to break yesterday’s high (91.98) before attempting to close yesterday’s opening gap lower.
- Yields 0.5-4bp lower, curve flatter.
- BoE Governor Bailey’s reiteration re: recent curve steepening factoring into the Bank’s QT adjustment decision in September underpinned an early flattening curve bias, with major spreads paring most of yesterday’s bear steepening.
- Still, a lack of fiscal headroom, coupled with tepid economic growth and downside risks to productivity continue to promote heighted odds of tax increases as soon as the Autumn, while underscoring the fiscal fragility narrative.
- GBP STIR pricing slightly more dovish on the day given action further out the curve.
- SONIA futures 0.5-2.0 firmer.
- BoE-dated OIS showing ~52.5bp of cuts through year-end, ~1bp more dovish on the day.
OPTIONS: Expiries for Jul10 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Jul-09 14:50
- EUR/USD: $1.1650(E2.5bln), $1.1685-00(E1.5bln), $1.1710-20(E616mln), $1.1735-50(E1.5bln), $1.1800(E1.3bln)
- USD/JPY: Y143.95-15($1.0bln), Y144.70-90($1.3bln), Y146.50-55($681mln), Y147.00($832mln)
- GBP/USD: $1.3490-10(Gbp529mln), $1.3570(Gbp540mln)
- EUR/GBP: Gbp0.8595-00(E815mln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6440-55(A$954mln), $0.6500(A$599mln), $0.6415-25(A$589mln), $0.6600(A$634mln)
- NZD/USD: $0.6000(N$517mln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.3625-35($1.0bln)
US STOCKS: Early Equities Roundup: Bid But Off Highs, IT & Media Outperforming
Jul-09 14:45
- Stocks are trading firmer early Wednesday, apparently tracking a rebound in Treasuries off yesterday's June 20 lows, projected rate cuts into year end gaining slightly ahead of this afternoon's June FOMC minutes release.
- Indexes did pare gains by midmorning, likely profit taking ahead of the minutes and some amount of wariness amid Pres Trump reiterating tariff threats via social media. Currently, the DJIA trades up 69.23 points (0.16%) at 44322.34, S&P E-Minis up 16.75 points (0.27%) at 6290.25, Nasdaq up 119 points (0.6%) at 20542.14.
- Communication Services and Information Technology sectors led gainers in the first half, interactive media and entertainment shares buoyed the former with Alphabet +2.80%, Warner Bros Discovery +2.59%, Meta Platforms +2.16% and Paramount Global +0.83%.
- THe Tech sector was supported by Arista Networks +2.20%, NVIDIA +2.10% (fist company to reach $4T market cap), Broadcom +1.76%, Microsoft +1.66% and Advanced Micro Devices +1.60%.
- On the flipside, Consumer Staples and Energy sectors underperformed in the first half, The Hershey Co -3.41%, Altria Group -2.66%, Monster Beverage -1.93% and Archer-Daniels-Midland -1.15% weighed on Staples while EQT Corp -1.59%, Targa Resources -1.53%, EOG Resources -1.43% and Kinder Morgan -1.39% kept the Energy sector under wraps.
