AUDUSD TECHS: Edging Higher Despite RBA Cuts

With a few exceptions, SOFR & Treasury options saw better call volumes carry over from overnight, huge Green Mar'26 SOFR Call spd add (+200k/wk) and not a particularly useful buy of 100k way-out of the money TYQ5 calls at sub-cab levels. Underlying futures remain firmer/near session , projected rate cut pricing gain slightly vs this morning's pre-data (*) levels: Jul'25 at -0.6bp, Sep'25 at -15.2bp (-14.2bp), Oct'25 at -28.6bp (-27.1bp), Dec'25 at -46.8bp (-43.7bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • +150,000 2QH6 98.00/98.25 call spds .87 (adds to +50k on Monday for 1.0)
  • +6,000 SFRZ5 95.87/96.06/96.18/96.31 put condors, 0.0 vs. 96.6/0.10%
  • Block/pit, -10,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.50/96.75/97.00 call condors, 3.75
  • 2,500 SFRZ5 95.62/95.75/95.87 put flys, ref 96.08
  • -19,750 SFRQ5 95.68/95.75 put spds 1.25 ref 95.815
  • Block/screen, +20,000 SFRH6 96.37/96.50 call spds vs. 96.00/96.12 put spds, 0.5 net vs. 96.31/0.15%
  • 1,000 SFRU5 95.68/95.75/95.872x3x1 broken put flys ref 95.815
• Treasury Options:
  • -100,000 TYQ5 115.5 calls, cab-7
  • over -60,000 TYU5 107/108 put spds, 5 ref 110-15.5
  • 2,100 USQ5 111/111.5 put spds, 9 ref 112-20
  • 2,500 TYQ5 107.5/108.5 2x1 put spds ref 110-18
  • 9,100 TYV5 109 puts 41 ref 110-13.5
  • Block, 7,500 TYV5 108 puts, 25 vs. 110-14/0.20%
  • Block, 7,500 TYV5 108/TYX5 107.5 put spds, 3 vs. 110-16/0.56
  • +5,000 TYU5 113/115 1x2 call spds, 2 vs. 110-12.5/0.05%
  • -2,500 TUU5 103.25 puts, 5.5
  • +15,000 TYU5 115 calls, 3
  • +10,000 TYU5 115.5 calls, 3
  • +5,000 TYU5 108/109 put spds, 11
  • Block/screen over +47,000 TYU5 108.5/109.5 put spds 16 vs. 110-10/0.15%
  • 2,500 TUU5 103.12/103.37/103.5/103.62 broken put condors, 0.5 net ref 103-17.12
  • -3,000 TYQ5 109.75/110.75 call over risk reversals, 0.0
  • 4,300 TYV5 111/112 call spds ref 110-08
  • 4,250 TYQ5 110.5 calls ref 110-12

• CANADA 2025-26 DEBT MANAGEMENT PLAN SEES CAD623B OF BORROWING

US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver remarks to the press and sign bills in the Oval Office. LIVESTREAM

• The Wall Street Journal reported earlier: "Trump is expected to sign an executive order in the coming days designed to help make private-market investments more available to U.S. retirement plans, according to people familiar with the matter. The order would instruct the Labor Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission to provide guidance to employers and plan administrators on including investments like private assets in 401(k) plans, the people said. The details of the order aren’t yet final and are still subject to review, the people said."
• The event comes after a White House bilateral meeting and working lunch with the Crown Prince and Prime Minister of Bahrain, Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa. Bahrain's state news agency BNA reported on Wednesday that Bahraini and US companies signed a series of agreements worth around USD$17 billion, aimed at strengthening economic ties and advancing cooperation. The deals cover aviation, technology, industry, and investment.
• Later this evening, Trump will have dinner with Prime Minister of Qatar, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, at the White House to press for a Gaza ceasefire deal. According Axios, Trump and Al Thani will also discuss the possibility of resuming direct talks between the US and Iran to reach a new agreement on Tehran's nuclear program.