ECB: ECB Staff On Consumer Willingness To Substitute US Goods

• In the equity space, S&P E-Minis maintain a softer tone following recent bearish price action. Attention is on key support and the bear trigger at 5559.75, the Mar 13 low. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started Feb 19, and open 5483.30, a Fibonacci projection. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high. Initial firm resistance is 5766.74, the 20-day EMA. Gains are considered corrective.
• EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded lower Monday resulting in a breach of key support at 5229.00, the Mar 11 low. The print below this support undermines a bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. Note that the 5200 handle has also been cleared, opening 5079.00, the Feb 3 low. It is still possible that recent weakness is part of a broader correction. Initial firm resistance to watch is 5343.17, the 20-day EMA.

A snap presidential election poll from Harris Interactive shows far-right Rassemblement National (RN, National Rally) leader Jordan Bardella leading in a hypothetical first-round if he becomes the RN candidate. This comes after presumptive RN presidential candidate Marine Le Pen was barred from seeking political office for five years as part of her sentence for misappropriation of funds, a ruling that has sparked outrage from Le Pen's supporters and contemporaries in France and abroad. 

• Bardella has served as RN president since 2022 and has been viewed as the heir apparent to Le Pen. It was generally assumed that Le Pen would run in 2027, given that at that point Bardella will be just 31 years of age, before handing over the mantle.
• This first poll (which of course should not be taken as the indication of a trend) shows Bardella with 35-36% support compared to 23-25% for Edouard Philippe, the mayor of Le Havre, who is seen as the frontrunner to lead the centrist Ensemble coalition. Perennial far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon sits far back on 13% in both polls.
• A separate poll from Elabe showed that among all French voters and RN supporters, Bardella is viewed as having as good as/a better chance of winning the presidency than Le Pen. Among all voters, 67% said Bardella has as good/a better chance of winning the presidency, compared to 30% saying only Le Pen could win for RN. This shifted to an 81%-18% split among RN voters. 

Chart 1. Opinion Poll, "Regarding the impossibility of Marine Le Pen running in the 2027 presidential election and the possibility that she will be replaced by Jordan Bardella, which of the following opinions are you closest to?", %

Source: Elabe, MNI. Fieldwork: 31 March (after Le Pen conviction), 1,008 respondents. 

• What we know: Trump, with his cabinet in attendance, will announce the details of his reciprocal tariff plan at 1500ET/2000BST tomorrow, aiming to address "unfair" trade practices with "country-based" tariffs. Sectoral duties will still be implemented, but will not be the focus Wednesday - so don't expect details on Autos, copper, pharma, or otherwise. There will be "no exemptions at this time" - meaning there appears to be little room for bilateral negotiation at this stage.
• What we don't know: Which countries will be targeted, what the outright levies will be, and when they will be effective by. It is also not clear whether tariffs will 'stack' - e.g. whether Aluminium exports to the US from a tariffed country will be double charged. It is also unknown whether goods deemed compliant under USMCA, or other trade agreements, will be exempt, or subject to an outright tariff.
• What does the market expect? There is no real consensus on what the outright tariff % could be, however it's expected that those that maintain the largest relative trade surpluses with the US will be targeted most heavily (including, but not limited to, the EU, China, Mexico, Canada, Japan, South Korea). Average levies are expected to range between 10-20%, but outsized risk remains - particularly considering Trump's recent threats to charge as much as 50% tariffs on Canadian goods in the short-lived rift over Ontario's electricity surcharges.