ECB: ECB Speak Wrap (Sep 16 – Sep 25)

The latest opinion poll, just over two months before the snap general elections, shows the right-wing Party for Freedom (PVV) of Geert Wilders retaining a narrow lead but likely well short of the numbers needed to re-enter gov't. The PVV's withdrawal from gov't in June set in motion the events that led to an early election. After a major swing to the right at the 2023 election, polling would appear to indicate that a more conventional coalition gov't formed by parties of the centre-left, centre, and centre-right looks the most likely to secure a stable majority. 

• The centre-left/environmentalist GreenLeft-Labour (GL-PvdA) led by former European Commission Exec VP Frans Timmermans is in second place with a projected 29 seats, up four from the 2023 election. The centre-right Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), a mainstay of Dutch governing coalitions through the post-war era, looks set to recover from its worst-ever result in 2023, with the latest poll showing the party set to win 22 seats. The poll shows that alongside the liberal Democrats 66 (10 seats) and conservative People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (15 seats), the GL-PvdA and CDA would account for 76 seats, just over the majority threshold.
• While this is just a single opinion poll, the projected seat totals track with those recorded in other recent surveys. The PVV looks set to lose seats from its 2023 peak, and the number of parties on the right willing to work with the PVV in gov't will almost certainly fall well short of the majority threshold.
• The Netherlands has a long history of drawn-out coalition negotiations, and gov'ts formed of multiple parties, meaning that a parliament that initially appears fractured may in fact prove capable of putting together a stable coalition (whether minority or majority). 

Chart 1. Hypothetical House of Representatives Composition, Seats

Source: Peil.nl. Based on 25 August opinion polling. Numbers in brackets indicate change in seats from 2023 election. 

• RES 4: 6600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 6572.45 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing 
• RES 1: 6508.75 High Aug 15 and all-time High
• PRICE: 6454.25 @ 14:35 BST Aug 26
• SUP 1: 6362.75 Low Aug 20
• SUP 2: 6313.25 Low Aug 6  
• SUP 3: 6304.76 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1

The dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and last Friday’s rally reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. Attention is on 6508.75, the Aug 15 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 6523.63, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at  6304.76, the 50-day EMA.

House prices were mixed versus expectations in June, but the overall trend is toward further softening. 

• The FHFA's house price index fell 0.2% M/M (-0.1% expected, -0.1% prior), with the S&P CoreLogic 20-City index falling 0.25% M/M (-0.20% expected, -0.32% prior).
• Momentum In all of the major house price aggregates is turning decidedly lower, amid rising inventories/low sales and continued high mortgage rates negatively impacting affordability.
• The FHFA's index is now falling at a 1.7% 3M/3M annualized rate, the weakest since 2011, with the S&P's 20-City at -2.7%, weakest since early 2023. This should be taken into broader context: both indices are up around 50% vs the start of 2020 and remain positive on a Y/Y basis (2.6% and 2.1% respectively) but have slowed considerably on that basis in the last several months.
• With pending home sales remaining weak and homebuilder sentiment as negative as it's ever been, we continue to expect downside pressure on prices.