ECB: ECB Speak Wrap (Nov 19– Dec 4)
For the full publication, see here
Dovish leaning Governing Council (GC) members have had less airtime than usual over the past two weeks, with centrist and hawkish-leaning voices taking centre stage. This may purely be a function of scheduling, but it’s also a fact that incoming data has pushed back against arguments for another rate cut this cycle. ECB-dated OIS now price just 6bps of easing through September 2026.
At its December 18 decision, the ECB’s policy statement is expected to retain a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach. Commentary around the growth and inflation outlook (and associated risks) will be guided by the updated macroeconomic projections. After choosing to avoid describing growth risks are “more balanced” at the October decision, President Lagarde returned to this characterisation at a European Parliament Hearing on Dec 3. However, we wouldn’t read too much into this choice just yet – it may just be a placeholder until the GC gets to review the updated forecasts.
On inflation, speakers continue to de-emphasise the importance of (i) the ETS2 delay and (ii) the chance of a below-target 2028 inflation projection on the near-term policy stance. That said, there remains some uncertainty around how tolerant some GC members - and markets - will be of a sub-2% expected inflation rate for at least the next two years.
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SONIA OPTIONS: More Call Condor vs Put Spread goes through
SFIH6 96.45/96.55/96.65/96.75c condor vs 96.25/96.15ps, bought the condor for 1.5 in 11k total on the day.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 7000.00 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 6993.12 3.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 2: 6974.04 3.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 1: 6953.75 High Oct 30 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 6832.50 @ 14:58 GMT Nov 4
- SUP 1: 6804.03/6786.25 20-day EMA / Intraday low
- SUP 2: 6698.11 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 6571.25 Low Oct 17
- SUP 4: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key short-term support
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. Attention is on support at the 20-day EMA, at 6804.03 (pierced). A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose the 50-day EMA at 6698.11 - a key pivot support. The bull trigger has been defined at 6953.75, the Oct 30 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
EU: Commission Outlines Varied Accession Progress For Candidate Countries
The European Commission adopted the 2025 Enlargement Package, the report assessing the progress accession countries have made over the past year towards meeting the criteria required to join the EU. Assessments range from the positive (Montenegro and Albania are seen as being on course to close accession negotiations by end-2026 and end-2027 respectively), to the balanced (Ukraine, Moldova and Bosnia and Herzegovina are judged to have made progress but need to accelerate the pace of reforms), to the negative (Turkey and Georgia, both criticised for the erosion of democratic values, with Georgia in particular labeled a 'candidate country in name only').
- Montenegrin Deputy PM Filip Ivanović has said that if the negotiations can be concluded by end-2026, then Montenegro would seek to become the EU's 28th member state in 2028.
- European Commission High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas said, "Russia’s full-scale invasion [of] Ukraine and the geopolitical shifts make the case for enlargement very clear cut, [but the EU] won’t cut corners and [does not] offer any shortcuts.” Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos said of Ukraine's accession plans, “It will be essential to sustain this momentum and prevent any risk of backsliding, in particular on anti-corruption.”
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Moldovan President Maia Sandu have both called for the EU to open all 'negotiating clusters' with their countries. However, given the issues surrounding anti-corruption efforts and security concerns in the face of Russian invasion/hybrid attacks, in the medium term, Montenegro and Albania are the only countries looking likely to join the EU by 2030.
