ECB: ECB Accounts: Mild Tweaks On The Balance Of Views To Inflation Risks

Retail sales maintained a 5.4% Y/Y month-to-date growth pace through the 3rd week of October, with a 5.2% rise in the latest week (5.0% prior), per the Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index. This is close to retailers' targeted 5.6% gain.

• We await the Chicago Fed's CARTS preliminary ex-auto retail sales estimate for October, which will be out Friday, but judging from Redbook thus far it looks like another solid month (at least in nominal terms). Of course we didn't get the September "official" Census Bureau report on Oct 23 due to the government shutdown, and it's unclear how the October data will be affected.
• The report suggests that solid Halloween-related sales bode well for holiday shopping activity to end the year: "Sales of Halloween-related merchandise are increasing as the month goes on. Retailers report that cooler weather in many regions has driven steady demand for seasonal clothing. Halloween often serves as an indicator for holiday sales in November and December. If shoppers are willing to spend more on Halloween items, it often suggests a positive outlook for consumer confidence, which may lead to increased spending later in the year. To get a head start on the holiday season, some stores have begun stocking Christmas items alongside Halloween products. Additionally, many retailers have started reducing prices on Halloween merchandise earlier than usual in order to attract shoppers to higher-margin items."

• GBP375.0mln have been on offer.
• This leaves GBP14.651bln of the gilt in issue.

• MNI:US AUG FHFA HPI SA +0.4% V +0.0% JUL; +2.3% Y/Y