EUROZONE DATA: Dovish Developments In EC Survey Price and Employment Metrics
The European Commission’s February Economic Sentiment Indicator was a touch stronger-than-expected at 96.3 (vs 95.9 cons, 95.3 prior), but remains below the long-term average of 100. Meanwhile, developments in services expected prices and overall expected employment sent slightly dovish signals.
- Industrial and services sentiment mirrored developments in the February flash PMIs, with industry slightly better than expected (-11.4 vs -12.0 cons, -12.7 prior) and services weaker (6.2 vs 6.8 cons, 6.7 prior).
- Consumer confidence confirmed flash estimates at -13.6 (vs -14.2 prior).
- Services expected prices saw an encouraging pullback to 12.7 (vs 15.7 in January, 14.5 in December and 12.4 in November). Industrial expected prices ticked up to 9.8 (vs 8.8 prior), while retail dipped to 15.9 (vs 16.8 prior).
- The Expected Employment index fell back to 97.0 after a bounce to 98.5 in January. Declines were seen in all major sub-components other than retail. The series has been below the long-term average of 100 since July 2024, signalling waning momentum in the Eurozone labour market. The labour hoarding index ticked up a touch to 11.3 (vs 11.0 prior).
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US: SOFR FIX - 28/01/25
SOFR FIX - Source BBG/CME
- 1M 4.31032 -0.00268
- 3M 4.28689 -0.00698
- 6M 4.22963 -0.0166
- 12M 4.13904 -0.04071
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AUSTRIA: FPÖ & ÖVP Struggle To Reach Consensus Amid Bank Levy Speculation
Talks continue between the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) and the conservative Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) as they seek to reach consensus on a programme for gov't. There are reports of disagreement between the parties over the FPÖ's alleged demand for a bank levy, first reported in Kronen Zeitung. The report claims the measure would be "a temporary "special levy" on excess profits, with which up to seven billion euros could be skimmed off from the profits of banks for the duration of the seven-year budget consolidation."
- Der Standard reports the levy "has not been an issue in the negotiations between the FPÖ and the ÖVP, according to the ÖVP. "Perhaps it will come," shrugged an ÖVP negotiator, "we will find out." And then we will just have to talk about it."
- Representatives from each party meet in the tax and finance subgroup tomorrow (29 Jan). For the FPÖ, former State Secretary of Finance Herbert Fuchs will be lead rep. The ÖVP will be represented by Chamber of Commerce President Harald Mahrer and Raiffeisen Secretary General Clemens Niedrist. Niedrist formerly served as cabinet chief for then-Finance Minister Magnus Brunner, and his presence has raised questions about the closeness of the ÖVP to the banking sector.
- Der Standard report claims "Neither the FPÖ nor the ÖVP negotiators can imagine that there will be a government next week," with the party leaders yet to meet during the course of talks.
