ECB: Details Of Wage Tracker Publishing Released

Dec-18 14:43

As noted by Chief Economist Lane in today's webcast with the MNI Policy Team, the ECB will begin publishing its wage trackers on a regular basis.

Link to press statement: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2024/html/ecb.pr241218_1~1acca7fac8.en.html

  • "Indicators to be published regularly in week following monetary policy meeting, on Wednesday at 10:00."
  • "December ECB wage tracker suggests negotiated wage pressures will ease overall in 2025 compared with 2024."
  • "It currently points to strong negotiated wage growth of 4.7% in 2024 (based on an average coverage of 47.4% of employees in participating countries), easing to 3.2% in 2025 (based on an average coverage of 32%)".
  • "The ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments indicates an average negotiated wage growth level of 4.8% in 2024, which eases to 2.7% in 2025".

Historical bullets

CANADA DATA: Foreigners Made Biggest Buy Of Canada Shares Since 2021 In Sept

Nov-18 14:38
  • September foreign investment in Canadian securities was the biggest since April at CAD29.3B.
  • Foreign acquisitions of Canadian debt securities was CAD14.7B in September, mainly in bonds. YTD, foreign investors purchased CAD172B of Canadian bonds, higher than previous CAD62B.
  • Biggest purchase of Canadian shares since December 2021 at CAD14.6B, bringing net YTD to +CAD9.6B from prior -CAD40.7B. Monthly purchase led by energy and mining, following Aug -CAD11.9B of shares.
  • Canadian investment in foreign securities slowed to CAD4.1B from CAD12.3B, mainly due to US shares.

EQUITIES: E-Minis Either Side Of Unchanged Into Cash Open

Nov-18 14:24

E-mini futures either side of unchanged as we head into the cash open.

  • Assessments of likely policy under Trump and his choice for Tsy Secretary have received much of the focus since Friday’s close.
  • S&P 500 +0.10%, NASDAQ 100 +0.40% & DJIA -0.08%.
  • Our technical analyst believes that last week’s weakness in S&P 500 e-minis appears corrective.
  • Medium-term trend signals, such as moving average studies, continue to highlight a dominant uptrend.
  • The next key support to monitor is 5,826.69, the 50-day EMA.
  • A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
  • A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 6,053.25, the Nov 11 high.

GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK: Xi Calls For Increased Cooperation w/Australia And UK

Nov-18 14:03

MNI London: Reuters reporting comments, per Xinhua, from separate meetings between Chinese President Xi Jinping and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and Xi and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese that took place today on the margins of the G-20 summit in Brazil.

  • Xi told Albanese that China-Australia relations, "have achieved a turnaround and are maintaining a positive momentum of development," and called on "both sides to strengthen coordination and cooperation, and oppose protectionism." Xi added that China and Australia, "are supporters and defenders of economic globalisation and free trade."
  • Xi told Starmer that China and Britain, "enjoy vast space for cooperation in areas such as trade and investment, clean energy, financial services, and healthcare and people's livelihoods"; and "should uphold their strategic partnership and open up new prospects," for bilateral relations.
  • Starmer said at the top of the meeting: “We want our relations to be consistent, durable, respectful, as we have agreed, avoid surprises where possible... The UK will be a predictable, consistent, sovereign actor committed to the rule of law.”
  • Xi's comments come after a meeting on Saturday with US President Joe Biden where Xi touted some successes in managing relations but had one eye on US President-elect Donald Trump's incoming administration. Beijing may see a more isolationist Trump foreign policy agenda as weakening Biden's flagship Indo-Pacific alliances - including the nuclear sharing agreement AUKUS (Australia, UK, and the US) and the QUAD alliance (Australia, India, Japan, US)  - which have been criticised by China as contributing to tensions in the region.