ECB: December Projections: "GDP ex-Ireland" A New Series To Monitor
On growth, the ECB projects Eurozone GDP at 0.2% Q/Q in Q4 '25, 0.3% in Q1 '26 and 0.4% for the rema...
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US DATA: Mixed Consolidation Of Improvement In NAHB Homebuilder Sentiment
NAHB homebuilder sentiment firmed marginally in November in a mixed report, building on a larger improvement back in October. The increase over the past two months is likely helped by lower mortgage rates (aided by a reasonable decline in mortgage swap spreads) but the tailwind appears marginal with sentiment still depressed historically.
- The NAHB housing market index was roughly as expected in its November release at 38 (cons 37), slightly extending what had been a 5pt increase to 37 in October.
- It leaves homebuilder sentiment at its highest since April, having improved from the low 30s at what had been close to lows since 2012. Still, it’s comfortably below the 66k averaged in 2019 or a long-term post-2000 average of ~50.
- Latest drivers on the month were mixed, with present sales +2pts to 41 and prospective traffic +1pt to 26, but the outlook for sales in six months’ time -3pts to 51 (albeit after an unusually strong 9pt increase in October).
- Broad sentiment by region was also mixed, with the south (easily the largest for new home sales) and west (second largest) rising 2pts, the midwest falling 2pts and northeast sliding 10pts to also fully reverse an 11pt jump.
US TSY FUTURES: Update: December'25-March'26 Roll Accelerates
Surge in Tsy quarterly futures roll volumes for December'25 to March'26 outlined below. Percentage complete still in the single digits ahead the "First Notice" date of Friday, November 28. Current roll details:
- TUZ5/TUH6 appr 84,500 from -5.88 to -5.37, -5.88 last; 4% complete
- FVZ5/FVH6 appr 312,500 from -2.75 to -2.0, -2.5 last; 6% complete
- TYZ5/TYH6 appr 212,000 from 1.5 to 1.0, 1.75 last; 8% complete
- UXYZ5/UXYH6 40,800 from 5.25 to 5.5, 5.5 last; 4% complete
- USZ5/USH6 39,000 from 11.75 to 14.0, 12.75 last; 7% complete
- WNZ5/WNH6 appr 45,800 from 9.75 to 10.25, 10.0 last; 3% complete
- Reminder, Dec'25 futures don't expire until next month: 10s, 30s and Ultras on December 19, 2s and 5s on December 31. Meanwhile, Dec'25 Tsy options will expire this Friday, November 21
GILT AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week
The DMO has announced it will be looking to sell GBP4.5bln of the 4.125% Mar-31 Gilt (ISIN: GB00BVP99673) at its auction next Tuesday, November 25.
