ECB VIEW: Danske Join Growing List Of Analysts Looking For No More ECB Cuts
Aug-01 12:12
- Danske Bank have removed their call for a final September cut and now expect no further ECB easing in 2025 and 2026, with the deposit rate at 2%.
- “The euro area economy has shown surprising resilience over the summer, with the outlook bolstered by the EU-US deal and accelerated German spending plans.”
- “Risks are still tilted towards a final cut later this year or in early 2026. Further softening of wage indicators could open the door for a final 'insurance cut'.”
- ECB-dated OIS currently has a cumulative 12.5bp of cuts priced by year-end and 17bp for March.
- The Jul 24 ECB decision and press conference has helped prompt an increased number of analysts looking for no further cuts. We currently see Berenberg, Commerzbank, Danske, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, Nomura, Nordea, Rabobank, RBC and Santander looking for such.
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UK: Sell Off In Gilts & GBP Stalls As Reeves Has Starmer's Full Support
Jul-02 12:08
Gilts and GBP stabilise off of lows as UK PM Starmer’s Press Secretary notes that Chancellor Reeves has the PM’s “full support”, per RTRS headlines.
US TSY FUTURES: Extending Lows Ahead June ADP Employ Data
Jul-02 12:06
- Treasury futures are extending lows ahead of the June ADP data at 0815ET (+98k expected, up from +37k in May).
- Currently, Sep'25 10Y trades -9 at 111-18.5 (111-18.5L / 111-30.5H).
- First key support to watch is 111.07+, the 20-day EMA.
- Curves steeper: 2s10s +2.831 at 49.554; 5s30s +2.655 at 95.419.
- Cross asset: Bbg US$ index climbing to 1192.26 (+2.75), stocks flat SPX eminis +0.0 at 6248.75), crude firmer (WTI +0.86 at 66.31), Gold firmer at 3342.23.
CROSS ASSET: UK Fiscal Fears Impacting Wider Markets
Jul-02 12:03
UK fiscal matters have impacted wider markets in recent history and growing worry seems to be driving things here, USD bid as a result (GBP under the most pressure in FX trade), while core global FI markets come under fresh pressure.
