BUNDS: Danske Bank Forecast E310-320bln Of German Bond Issuance In 2026
Danske Bank’s initial forecast for 2026 German bond issuance is E310-320bln, assuming unchanged bubill issuance of E130bln. If realised, they write that “this will add pressure on the German ASW-spreads and keep our expectations for a Bund ASW-spread towards -20bp”.
- Although Danske estimate a gross borrowing requirement of ~E500bln for 2026, they note that Finanzagentur “has other options to lower the Bund supply as it has done in 2025”, such as “reverse repos, selling own bonds, some prefunding, deposits as well as receiving revenue from KfW and FMS Wertmanagement”. As such, “there is significant uncertainty regarding the gross issuance of Bunds as we have to consider the other funding sources”.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In Gilts Remains Present
- In the FI space, Bund futures traded lower Tuesday, extending Monday’s sell-off. Support at 129.77, the Jul 3 low, has been cleared. The clear break confirms a resumption of the recent bearish theme and opens 129.30 next, the May 22 low. On the upside, resistance around the the 50-day EMA, at 130.47, has recently been pierced but for now, remains intact. A clear break of it is required to highlight a possible reversal.
- A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and Tuesday’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The contract has breached support at 91.63, the Jul 2 low. Price has also pierced 91.50, the 61.8% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg. This exposes 90.97, the 76.4% retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 92.51, the 20-day EMA.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U5) Approaching The Bull Trigger
- RES 4: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont)
- RES 3: 5500.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 5486.00 High May 20 and a key bull trigger
- RES 1: 5456.00 High Jun 11
- PRICE: 5447.00 @ 12:00 BST Jul 9
- SUP 1: 5281.00/5194.00 Low Jul 1 & 4 / Low Jun 23 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: 5182.00 Low May 2
- SUP 3: 5100.94 38.2% retracement of the Apr 7 - May 20 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5078.00 Low Apr 30
Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading higher today as the contract extends the recovery that started Jun 23. This strengthens a bullish condition and exposes key resistance and the bull trigger at 5486.00, the May 20 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term bull cycle that began Apr 7. A break would open the 5500 handle. On the downside key support has been defined at 5194.00, the Jun 23 low.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: David Miles on the costs of the shift away from long-dated gilts
OBR's David Miles on the costs of the structural shift away from long-dated gilts.- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
