EU CREDIT UPDATE: CREDIT UPDATE: Fresenius SE (FREGR: Baa3/BBB/BBB-): 3Q24

A sharp hawkish move in GBP STIRs at the open, before contracts stabilise.

• While there wasn’t an overt headline driver, some have flagged commentary & analysis pointing to the risk of higher interest rates if the Labour government boosts borrowing alongside a widely expected fiscal rule tweak.
• Note that one of the referenced pieces comes from Treasury research published in late ’23.
• BoE-dated OIS is 1-9bp less dovish through November ’25, showing 21.5bp of cuts for November ‘24, 37bp of cuts through year-end and 92.5bp of cuts through June ’25.
• That compares to 22.5bp, 38bp and 98bp late Friday.
• SONIA futures last 0.5-7.5 lower, with some contracts 6.0 off session lows.
• Futures traded through their post-NFP lows hitting levels not seen since early August/July.
• The scope of the move seen over the past two sessions, coupled with early Monday volume, suggest that long liquidations probably factored into the move.
• The latest REC report on jobs pointed to continued loosening in the labour market but did little for GBP STIRs given the sharp hawkish repricing.
• Assessment of the move will likely dominate for the remainder of today,
• Friday’s monthly economic activity data headlines the UK calendar this week.

• RES 4: $33.738 - 1.618 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing    
• RES 3: $33.297 - 1.50 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing 
• RES 2: $33.000 - Round number resistance  
• RES 1: $32.963 - High Sep 26                   
• PRICE: $31.856 @ 08:03 BST Oct 7
• SUP 1: $30.976/30.068 - 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 2: $28.535 - Low Sep 12  
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 and a key support  
• SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14

Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and recent gains reinforce this set-up. The metal has recently traded through resistance at $31.754, the Jul 11 high. Note too that price has also pierced $32.518, the May 20 high and a key resistance. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and open $33.297, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support lies at $30.068, the 50-day EMA.