AUSTRALIA DATA: Consumption Made A Soft Start To Q2
Jun-05 02:00
Household spending started Q2 on a soft note with the small increase narrowly driven by non-discretionary expenditure and Queensland. The total rose 0.1% m/m in April to be up 3.7% y/y after weather-affected March was revised higher to a 0.1% m/m fall but up 3.8% y/y.
- Goods spending fell 1.1% m/m to be up only 0.9% y/y down from 2.6% y/y, while services jumped 1.5% m/m to be up 7.2% y/y following 5.3% y/y in March. Tourism expenditure had been impacted by extreme weather in Queensland and NSW in March. Spending in Queensland rebounded 2.0% m/m after falling 1.3%.
- The growth in services was driven by recreation, eating out (hotels & restaurants +2.2%) and health while goods were negatively impacted by less spending on clothing (-3.5%) and vehicles.
- Discretionary spending fell 0.2% m/m to be 3.0% higher on a year ago down from 3.4%. This was the second straight monthly decline. In contrast non-discretionary expenditure rose 0.6% m/m to be up 4.9% y/y after 4.7%.
- The household spending release will replace retail sales from 1 August.
Australia household consumption y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
CHINA: PMI Services Dip in April
May-06 01:55
- April’s PMI services unexpectedly dipped in April in signs that the US tariff war is hurting.
- The CAIXIN PMI services had printed above 51 for six successive months and market expectations were for a continuation of this theme and a print of +51.8.
- April’s result of +50.7 is the lowest since September and could be an early warning sign that the economy is slowing quicker than first thought.
- The government’s official GDP growth forecast of 5% may be under threat and could bring about further policy intervention to support what looks like softening growth.
- The details within today’s release show a modest uptick in employment from +48.6 to +49.2; yet still in contraction and prices charged relative to last month rose.
US TSYS: US Tsys - Epsilon theory : Our True Enemy Has Yet To Reveal Himself
May-06 01:47
Ben Hunt of Epsilon Theory wrote a thread on X : “It's not the tariffs. It's not the recession. It's not the tax cuts. These are just the catalysts, the vehicles through which the true enemy shows himself.”
- “I feel as strongly today as I did in 2008 that our true enemy has not yet revealed himself.”
- “I feel as strongly today as I did in 2008 that the ‘normal’ market discourse around recession and jobs and inventories acts as a distraction from the systemic risk that is manifesting itself.”
- “I feel as strongly today as I did in 2008 that to the degree systemic risk is being discussed, it is described as ‘well-contained’ by the US government even though we can all see with our own eyes that it is not contained at all.”
- “In 2008 the true enemy was the over-financialization of the US residential mortgage market, and the catalyst for the true enemy to wreak havoc in the global financial system was a sharp, universal decline in US home prices.”
- “In 2025 the true enemy is the over-financialization of the US Treasury market, and the catalyst for the true enemy to wreak havoc in the global financial system is a sharp, universal decline in the full faith and credit of the United States.”
- “The true enemy is uncompensated risk in the risk-free securities that have been financialized and levered across every substrate of the global system, uncompensated risk that comes from a diminishment of the full faith and credit of the United States.”
- https://x.com/EpsilonTheory/status/1919474733508178055
CHINA: Central Bank Withdraws Liquidity via OMO (updated)
May-06 01:36
- The PBOC issued CNY405bn of 7-day reverser repo at 1.5% during this morning’s operations.
- Total maturities today CNY
- Net liquidity withdrawal CNY682bn.
- The PBOC monitors and maintains liquidity in the interbank system through the issuance of reverse repo.
- The CFETS Pledged Repo Deposit Institutions 7 Day Weighted Average Index is at 1.60% versus close on 30/4 at 1.79%.
- The China Overnight Interbank repo rate is at 1.72%, versus close on 30/4 of 1.78%
- The China 7-day Interbank repo rate is at 1.60%, versus close on 30/4 of 1.95%
