EGBS: Confluence Of Factors Applying Pressure To Bunds, Bear Trigger In Sight
The combination of higher oil prices, impending EU-bond supply and hawkish JGB spillover overnight has weighed on major EGB futures this morning. Bunds are -30 ticks at 128.58, narrowing the gap to the short-term bear trigger at 128.37 (Nov 20 low). Clearance of this level would resume the bear leg and open 128.25, the Oct 7 low.
- A reminder that futures volumes are likely to be impacted quarterly roll activity this week.
- The German curve has bear steepened, with 5s30s up 0.5bps to 104bps. Whether the spread can test the Sep 3 year-to-date high of 111bps may depend on the details of Germany’s 2026 issuance plan – usually released in the middle of December. 10-year Bund yields are back above 2.70%, up 3bps today.
- EGB spreads vs. Bunds little changed to ~1bp wider with headwinds for risk sentiment driving the initial widening seen early this week.
- The EU will hold its final EU-bond auction of 2025 at 1030GMT, with up to E2bln of the 0% Oct-28 EU-bond, up to E2bln of the 2.75% Dec-32 EU-bond and up to E1bln of the 0.45% Jul-41 EU-bond on offer.
- The November manufacturing PMIs highlighted renewed divergence between Germany/France and the rest of the region, but were not market movers. Eurozone-wide November flash inflation is due tomorrow.
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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (Z5) Returns Lower
- RES 3: 95.982 - 76.4% retracement Sep’24 - Nov’24 downleg
- RES 2: 95.960 - High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 1: 95.900 - High Oct 17
- PRICE: 95.670 @ 16:16 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: 95.510 - Low Sep 3
- SUP 2: 95.415/95.300 - Low May 15 / Low Jan 14
- SUP 3: 95.275 - Low Nov 14 (cont) and a key support
Aussie 10-yr futures slipped lower Wednesday on the back of hotter-than-expected Australian inflation. This returned prices lower despite nascent signs of a technical recovery as recently as last week. The sustainability of the pullback will be dependent on prices holding above key short-term support at 95.510, the Sep 3 low. Near-term resistance remains 95.780, the Sep 12 high. A clear break of this level signals scope for a continuation higher and opens 95.960, the 76.4% retracement level for the Sep’24 - Nov’24 downleg.
AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (Z5) Struck by Strong CPI
- RES 3: 97.796 - 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 12 - 15 price swing
- RES 2: 96.780 - High Jun 26 (cont)
- RES 1: 96.700 - High Sep 12
- PRICE: 96.375 @ 16:13 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: 96.280 - Low May 15 (cont.)
- SUP 2: 95.900 - Low Jan 14 (cont.)
- SUP 3: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
Having bounced well on the back of the mild US CPI print, Aussie 3-yr futures reversed course Wednesday on strong domestic inflation data containing RBA cut pricing through 2026. This keeps prices well below prior resistance at 96.615, the Sep 12 high, and refocuses attention on 96.280 as the next major support.
FED: Gov Waller: Still Advocating For A December Rate Cut
Gov Waller, one of the FOMC's more prominent doves, makes clear in an appearance on Fox Business that he supports a follow-up rate cut in December. He makes reference to Chair Powell's press conference comment that the Fed could skip a cut at the December meeting due in part to a lack of official government data during the federal shutdown (Powell: “what do you do if you are driving in the fog? You slow down").
- Waller says today: "Right now, we know that the labor market has been weak... We know inflation is going to come back down. Inflation expectations are anchored, and in that world, the standard of central bank wisdom is to look through it and proceed with worrying about the labor market. So in my view, we should just look at what the data is telling us and proceed on policy that way.... So this is why I'm still advocating that we cut policy rates in December, because that's what all the data is telling me to do. The fog might tell you to slow down. It doesn't tell you to pull over to the side of the road. You still have to go. You may want to be careful, but it doesn't mean to stop, and ... the right thing to do with policy is to continue cutting."
- This is of particular interest since he appeared to suggest he would have a more cautious outlook on further easing after cutting in October.
