AUSTRALIA: Coalition Split Heralds Shift On Australia's Right

The longstanding 'Coalition' between the two main parties of the Australian centre-right/right, the Liberal Party (LP) and the Nationals (Nats), has been dissolved amid significant policy disagreements in the wake of the landslide victory for PM Anthony Albanese's centre-left Australian Labor Party (ALP) in the 3 May federal election. The end of the Coalition came after the LP slumped to its worst result since 1946, winning just 28 seats, while the Nats won 15, down one from 2022. 

• The Guardian reports "four reasons behind the splinter were the Nationals’ support for supermarket divestiture powers, a domestic nuclear power industry, a $20bn regional Australia future fund and changes to regional telephone service obligations. A senior Liberal source said the Nationals also wanted to allow shadow cabinet ministers to cross the floor and vote against their own side – the “untenable” fifth reason not mentioned at the press conference."
• The split will not affect the passage of legislation, with the ALP holding a sizeable majority in the House of Representatives, and the environmentalist Greens continuing to hold the balance of power in the Senate.
• The end of the Coalition will allow the Nats to pursue a more overtly socially-conservative, pro-rural agenda, but will also relegate the party to the cross benches. Parliamentary rules mean the official opposition (now just the LP) gets the bulk of questions to ask gov't ministers. It remains to be seen whether the LP pursues a populist right agenda or shifts back to its historic pro-business, liberal stance that meant for decades it won significant middle-class support. 

Chart 1. Australian House of Representatives, Seats

Source: AEC, MNI