AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper To Start The New Year, 45bps Of Hikes Priced For '26

NZGBs are 4-7bps richer, reversing part of the recent post-RBNZ sell-off. Nevertheless, yields remain 12-26bps higher than pre-RBNZ levels, led by the 5-year (see chart). 

• Overnight, US tsys little changed after seeing-sawing as Pres Trump continued to tease the potential Fed chair replacement, inferring Kevin Hassett again (Hassett odds were back to 80% on Polymarket vs 70% earlier today): Context on the Trump-Hassett headlines: [Listing off people in the room] "I guess a potential Fed chair is here too. I don’t know, are we allowed to say that, potential? He’s a respected person that I can tell you. Thank you, Kevin."
• Bloomberg: "Whole Milk Powder Average Price Falls to $3,364 a Ton from $3,452 at the previous auction, according to the GlobalDairyTrade website. GDT's weighted average price for all milk products was $3,507 a ton."
• Swap rates are 4-7bps lower.
• RBNZ-dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings. 2bps of easing is priced for February, while November 2026 assigns 29bps of tightening.
• Today, the local calendar will see ANZ Commodity Price data.
• On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$150mn of the 4.50% May-30 bond, NZ$225mn of the 4.50% May-35 bond and NZ$75mn of the 2.75% May-51 bond.

Bloomberg Finance LP

Bloomberg reported a US crude inventory build of 2.48mn barrels last week but an 89k drawdown at Cushing, according to people familiar with the API data. There were also product builds with gasoline up 3.1mn and distillate 2.88mn. The official EIA data is out Wednesday and will be watched for similar trends given current concerns regarding global excess supply which is expected to show in rising inventories.  

• Bank of Korea to Sell KRW1.8 tn 2-Year Bonds
• Hong Kong to Sell HK$500 m  3.75% 2039 Bonds
• Hong Kong to Sell HK$2 Bn 2.7% 2030 Bonds
• Vietnam To Sell VND 3.0Tln 2030 Bonds; (TD2530010)
• Vietnam To Sell VND 0.5Tln 2055 Bonds; (TD2555052)
• Vietnam To Sell VND 8.0Tln 2035 Bonds; (TD2535029)
• Vietnam To Sell VND 1.5Tln 2040 Bonds; (TD2540037)
• Bank Indonesia to Sell 31D SUVBI Bills
• Bank Indonesia to Sell 182D SUVBI Bills
• Bank Indonesia to Sell 90D SUVBI Bills
• Bank Indonesia to Sell 367D SUVBI Bills
• Bank Indonesia to Sell 277D SUVBI Bills
• China to Sell CNY40 Bn 63-Day Bills
• China to Sell CNY60 Bn 91-Day Bills
• India to Sell INR70 Bn 91-Day Bills 
• India to Sell INR60 Bn  182-Day Bills 
• India to Sell INR60 Bn 364-Day Bills