AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper But Off Worst Levels Despite Jobs Beat

• RES 4: 120.20 High Dec 12 ‘24 (cont)           
• RES 3: 120.000 Psychological round number          
• RES 2: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 119.470 High Apr 11                                    
• PRICE: 119.340 @ 05:45 BST Apr 15  
• SUP 1: 118.336/117.680 20-day EMA / Low Apr 9 / 1       
• SUP 2: 117.410 Low Mar 27   
• SUP 3: 117.126 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle  
• SUP 4: 117.080 Low Mar 25 and a key short-term support    

Bobl futures continue to trade below their recent highs. The latest move down - for now, appears corrective. The early April rally resulted in a break of key resistance at 119.040, the Feb 28 high. This strengthens bullish conditions and signals scope for a continuation. The focus is on the 120.000 handle next. The contract has been in overbought territory, a move down has allowed this to unwind. Initial firm support lies at 117.680, the Apr 9 low.

NZGBs closed at session highs in a bull-flattening move, with benchmark yields falling 5–15bps across the curve. 

• The short end underperformed, partly due to a sharper rise in NZ food prices, which climbed 3.5% in the year to March 2025, up from 2.4% in February. Stats NZ attributed the increase primarily to higher prices in the grocery food and meat, poultry, and fish categories, which rose 5.1% and 5.3%, respectively.
• Meanwhile, the long end found support from US tsys. Cash US tsys has bull-flattened during today's Asia-Pacific session, with yields flat to 4bps lower. The US calendar is light today, with attention turning to retail sales and remarks from Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday.
• Swap rates closed flat to 9bps lower, with the 2s10s curve flatter.
• RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed 1-2bps firmer across meetings. 30bps of easing is priced for May, with a cumulative 78bps by November 2025.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Non-Resident Bond Holdings data, ahead of Q1 CPI on Thursday.
• On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$275mn of the 3.00% Apr-29 bond and NZ$225mn of the 4.25% May-36 bond.

• RES 4: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 3: 1.1555 1.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1495 High Feb 10 2022 
• RES 1: 1.1473 High Apr 11 
• PRICE: 1.1358 @ 05:56 BST Apr 15
• SUP 1: 1.1144 High Apr 3 and a recent breakout level     
• SUP 2: 1.0972 20-day EMA     
• SUP 3: 1.0788 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level     
• SUP 4: 1.0733 Low Mar 27 and a key short-term support

A bull cycle in EURUSD remains intact and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The breach last week of 1.1144, the Apr 3 high and bull trigger, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.1555 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support lies at the 1.1144 breakout level. Key support is unchanged at the 20-day EMA, at 1.0972.