AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper After Today's Domestic Data Drop
Aug-01 03:59
ACGBs (YM -5.5 & XM -5.5) are weaker after today’s domestic data drop.
- Australian producer prices rose 0.7% q/q in Q2 versus +0.9% in Q1.
- Australian house price index rose 0.6% m/m in July versus +0.6% in June.
- S&P Global July manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rises to 51.3 from 50.6 in June.
- Cash ACGBs are 5-6bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -6bps.
- Today’s auction of the Jun-35 bond showed solid pricing for ACGBs, with the weighted average yield coming in 0.5bps below prevailing mid-yields, according to Yieldbroker. However, the cover ratio nudged lower to 3.2958x from 3.3625x at the previous auction.
- The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -2 to-6.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is firmer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut in August is given a 97% probability, with a cumulative 57bps of easing priced by year-end (based on an effective cash rate of 3.84%).
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
CHINA: Bond Futures Strong as OMO Withdraws Liquidity
Jul-02 03:58
- China's bond futures rallied in the morning session as the Central Bank withdrew liquidity during the OMO.
- The 10yr future is up +.10 to 109.08, following on from yesterday's rally. The move sees the 10yr trade above the 20-day EMA of 108.99.
- The 2yr future +0.02 to 102.50 to trade through the 20-day EMA of 102.49 and approach the 50-day EMA of 102.51
- The 10YR government bond is lower in yield by -0.05bps at 1.64%
JGBS: Futures Slightly Weaker, Heavy US Calendar Before Long Weekend
Jul-02 03:39
In early afternoon trade, JGB futures weaker, -5 compared to the settlement levels, after reversing modest overnight gains.
- Japan’s monetary base fell 3.5 percent in June from a year ago.
- Japan’s super-long bonds are set to remain under pressure in the medium term as local life insurers may offload holdings to sidestep impairment losses on deeply discounted debt. (per BBG)
- (Bloomberg) -- Japan will continue actively negotiating tariffs in good faith with the US for both countries’ mutual benefit, Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kazuhiko Aoki says at a regular press conference on Wednesday.
- Cash US tsys are little changed in today's Asia-Pac session after yesterday's twist-flattener. Wednesday's US data focus is on MBA Mortgage Applications at 0700ET, Challenger Jobs at 0730ET followed by ADP Employment Change at 0815ET. No Fed scheduled Fed speakers. Thursday is a heavy data day with NFP added due to Independence Day holiday closure on Friday.
- Cash JGBs are little changed across benchmarks out to the 10-year and ~1bp richer beyond. The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.5bp higher at 1.40% versus the cycle high of 1.596%.
- The swaps curve has twist-steepened, with rates 1bp lower to 1bp higher. Swap spreads are tighter out the 10-year and wider beyond.
ASIA STOCKS: Is the tide Coming Back in for Asia Stock Flows
Jul-02 03:13
- We report each day the flow data for major regional bourses which suffered heavily under the threat of tariffs.
- However in recent months we have seen strong inflows into Taiwan, India and South Korea, and whilst year to date flows remain negative there appears sufficient evidence to ask whether the worst is over for outflows for major regional bourses.
- The flows began to turn positive when tariffs were paused in April with Taiwan the biggest beneficiary thanks to its semi-conductor manufacturers.
- USD weakness is a potential positive catalyst for the second half of 2025 for Asia flows, particularly if trade agreements are reached.
