ECB: Centeno: Rates Still In Downward Trend

• In FX, EURUSD is trading closer to its recent lows. The latest pullback appears corrective. The trend remains bullish - MA studies are in a bull-mode position signalling a dominant uptrend. The latest move down has also allowed an overbought condition to unwind. A resumption of gains would open 1.1608, the Nov 9 2021 high. Initial key support to watch is the 20-day EMA, at 1.1279. A break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
• Recent weakness in GBPUSD appears corrective and the pair continues to trade inside a range with support at 1.3245, the 20-day EMA, intact. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, signalling a dominant underlying uptrend. A resumption of gains would open 1.3510, a 1.236 projection of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing.
• The primary trend direction in USDJPY remains bearish and gains since Apr 22 appear corrective. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 146.33, remains intact. A clear break of this average would highlight a possible reversal. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the trend would open 139.79 next, a 1.382 projection of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing. First key support to watch is 141.97, the Apr 29 low.

OI data points to a mix of net long setting (FV, UXY, US & WN) and short cover (TU & TY) during Tuesday’s uptick in Tsy futures, with curve-wide positioning effectively neutral in DV01 equivalent terms.

TYM5 109.50 puts ~12K given at 0-07 over the last hour or so.