GERMANY: CDU Falls To Lowest Forsa Poll Score Since Sep '23 Amid AfD Furore
The latest opinion poll from Forsa shows the main opposition centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) recording 28% support. This is the lowest backing for the Union in a Forsa poll since September 2023. While generic polling shows the Union is still in pole position to emerge as the largest party in the 23 Feb federal election, the fallout from two high-profile Bundestag votes in late January could yet have an impact on vote shares.
- Forsa: Union: 28% (-2), AfD: 20%, SPD: 16%, Green: 15% (+1), LINKE: 5% (+1), FDP: 4%, BSW: 4% (+1), Others: 8% (-1). 28 Jan-3 Feb, chgs w/21-27 Jan. 2,503 respondents.
- The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) voted alongside the CDU (and others) in votes on 28 and 31 Jan that sought to restrict migrant entries into Germany.
- Merz reiterated at a party congress on 3 Feb that he would never countenance going into gov't with the AfD post-election. These comments came as thousands protested in Berlin against the AfD and the CDU for breaching the 'firewall' that has for years seen all other parties avoid voting with the AfD.
- Political betting markets continue to see a Union-Social Democrat 'grand coalition' as the most likely outcome of the election, with data from Polymarket showing a 55% implied probability of that outcome. A Union-SPD-Green 'Kenya' coalition has a 12% implied probability of coming to fruition, with 8.6% for a Union-SPD-FDP 'Germany' coalition, 7% for a Union-Green 'black-green' coalition, and 6.3% for a Union-AfD gov't.
Chart 1. Federal Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: Forsa, FGW, Allensbach, Infratest dimap, Verian, YouGov, Wahlkreisprognose, Civey, GMS, Democracy Institute, INSA, MNI
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JGB TECHS: (H5) Returns Lower
- RES 3: 149.55 - High Mar 22 (cont)
- RES 2: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 1: 144.48/146.53 - High Nov 11 / High Aug 6
- PRICE: 142.12 @ 15:01 GMT Jan 03
- SUP 1: 141.65 - Low Dec 30
- SUP 2: 141.56 - 1.764 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
- SUP 3: 141.05 - 2.000 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
Markets slipped on the hawkish Fed and are yet to fully recover, touching 141.65 on the way lower. Medium-term trend signals on the continuation chart continue to point south. A resumption of the trend would pave the way for a move towards 141.56, a Fibonacci projection point on the continuation chart. A stronger recovery would open 144.48, the Nov 11 high. Further out, key resistance is at 146.53, the Aug 6 high (cont).
USDCAD TECHS: Bull Flag Highlights A Clear Uptrend
- RES 4: 1.4669 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4392 @ 15:50 GMT Jan 3
- SUP 1: 1.4336 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 1.4307/4232 20-day EMA / Low Dec 17
- SUP 3: 1.4136 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
USDCAD is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4307, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9
- RES 3: 0.6408 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6341 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 0.6247/6282 High Dec 30 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6204 @ 15:21 GMT Jan 3
- SUP 1: 0.6179 Low Dec 31
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair continues to trade closer to latest lows. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6282, the 20-day EMA.
