BUNDS: Bund is testing the notable support area
- A tight range for Bund and on the margin for US Treasuries Overnight as the Globe awaits for any potential US-China deals over the Weekend.
- As a side note, China export went up despite going down to the US.
- Regardless of the tight range in Bund, the contract is back at the important initial support area of 130.75/130.70, even though it printed a 130.66 low this Week, testing this level now post Cash Open.
- A breakout through this area opens to 130.27 next.
- The US Tnotes (TYM5) is also worth watching here after the 10yr Yield made an attempt up to the 4.40% level, printed a 4.3941% high and a 110.22 low in Futures late Yesterday.
- Today 4.40% is at 110.20.
- Recall that the test towards 4.60% on the 11th April was the cause for the 90 days delay.
- The only tier 1 Data left for the day is the Canadian Employment, but should have limited impact at least in Europe.
- SPEAKERS: This is a packed day for speakers, it includes, ECB Rehn, Simkus, BoE Bailey, Pill, and out of the blackout period, Fed Kugler (x2), Williams (x3), Barkin, and Goolsbee, but the main focus is over the Weekend and trade talks between US - China.
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GOLD TECHS: Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: $3223.8 - 3.382 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 3: $3200.00 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $3196.2 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 1: $3055.6/3167.8 - High Apr 7 / 3 and bull trigger
- PRICE: $3021.1 @ 07:12 BST Apr 9
- SUP 1: $2956.7 - Low Apr 7
- SUP 2: $2946.9 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2880.3 - Low Mar 10
- SUP 4: $2832.7 - Low Feb 28
The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the latest pull back appears corrective. Moving average studies are unchanged, they remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Price has traded through support at the 20-day EMA. The next key support to watch lies at 2946.9, the 50-day EMA. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $3196.2, a Fibonacci projection. The bull trigger is 3167.8, the Apr 3 high.
CHINA: Country Wrap: Premier Optimistic about Prospects.
- In a sea of red across the region, the onshore equities bourses in China were the sole risers today as state owned asset managers bought the market with inflows into ETF's linked to the 'national team' topped CNY87bn on Tuesday, an all time record. (source MNI – Market News).
- Chinese Premier Li Qiang expressed optimism about China's economic growth in 2025, despite the latest tariff threat from US President Donald Trump. Li said China has ample policy tools to "fully offset" any negative external shocks and is strongly confident about maintaining the country's healthy and sustainable economic growth this year. (source: BBG)
- The Hang Seng was down in line with other regional indexes, falling -1.55%, whilst the CSI 300 rose +0.30%, Shanghai +0.24% and Shenzhen +0.47% respectively.
- CNY: Yuan Reference Rate at 7.2066 Per USD; Estimate 7.3387
- Bonds were stronger today with the CGB 10YR at 1.64%, - 2bps on the day.
BRENT TECHS: (M5) Southbound
- RES 4: $77.75 - High Jan 20
- RES 3: $76.26 - High Feb 20
- RES 2: $71.63/75.47 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $65.21/67.95 - High Apr 7 / Low Mar 5
- PRICE: $60.79 @ 06:58 BST Apr 9
- SUP 1: $60.13 - Intraday low
- SUP 2: $58.85 - 2.000 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $56.89 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 4: $55.00 - Round number support
Brent futures continue to trade in a volatile manner and the contract has again traded to fresh cycle lows, today. Recent weakness has resulted in a move through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and a number of important support levels have been cleared. This signals scope for a continuation, and sights are on $58.85 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at $67.95, the Mar 5 low.
