EGBS: Bund Futures Retrace Turkey-inspired Risk-off Bid
Mar-19 09:36
Bund futures are off session highs, with this morning’s risk-off bid in response to fresh Turkish political turmoil fading as European equities recover. Regional headline flow has otherwise been light, with the BOJ decision/press conference having a little net impact on the space.
- Bunds are +30 ticks versus yesterday’s settlement at 128.17. The March 10 high at 128.33 was pierced during this morning’s short-lived rally to 128.66.
- The overarching technical trend remains bearish though, with firm resistance not seen until 129.41, the Jan 14 low.
- The German curve has bull flattened, with 30-year yields 2.5bps lower on the session. Germany will sell E1.0bln of the 0% Aug-50 Bund alongside E1.5bln of the 1.80% Aug-53 Bund at 1030GMT.
- Today’s regional data calendar includes the final February HICP inflation report at 1000GMT, where focus will be on the details of services components and the ECB’s underlying inflation metrics. Final Q4 labour costs are also due - the prelim read was 4.1% Y/Y for the Business Economy (WDA).
- ECBspeak is due from Centeno, de Guindos, Villeroy and Elderson. Broader global focus remains on the FOMC decision this evening.
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GERMAN DATA: New Metric Sees Economic Production +0.7% M/M in Nov
Feb-17 09:34
German economy-wide production rose 0.7% M/M (swda) in November, and but fell 0.6% Y/Y.
- Released today for the first time, this new composite economic indicator “combines four short-term indices covering most of the non-financial business economy, namely the indices of production in industry, construction and the service sector and the deflated turnover index for trade. Due to the relatively broad coverage of the index, it provides a comprehensive picture of the monthly development of economic activity in Germany", Destatis adds.
- The index value is the weighted average of the four subindices.
- In 2023, it accounted for around 71% of total value generation in the German economy. Sectors not covered include public services, finance and insurance services, agriculture, and a small "other services" group.
- Compared to GDP, the new index also does not deduct intermediate inputs, but only measures total production output. "GDP and the production index for the economy as a whole only develop similarly if the share of intermediate consumption in the production value i.e. the intermediate input ratio, remains constant."
- Destatis plans to reduce the time lag of the production index in the future.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: MNI speaks to former BOJ executive director
Feb-17 09:30
MNI speaks to former BOJ executive director Kenzo Yamamoto..-On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY
Feb-17 09:08
Of note:
EURUSD 3.63bn at 1.0500 (could act as magnet).
USDJPY 1.59bn at 152.00/152.25.
EURUSD 1.52bn at 1.0500 (wed).
USDCNY 1.43bn at 7.2500 (thu).
- EURUSD: 1.0400 (331mln), 1.0425 (275mln), 1.0500 (3.63bn).
- USDJPY: 151.50 (450mln), 152.00 (545mln), 152.05 (630mln), 152.25 (410mln).
- AUDUSD: 0.6300 (473mln).
