EGBS: Bund Futures Off Lows, But Consolidating Yesterday's Selloff
Although off session lows at typing, Bund futures have broadly consolidated yesterday afternoon’s sharp selloff, which came amid reports of a nearing trade deal between the EU and the US. Monday’s low of 129.73 was pierced earlier this morning, but a pullback in European equity futures has helped futures back to 129.96 (-62 ticks today). A clear breach of 129.73 would be a bearish development and expose the July 14 low at 129.08.
- First reported by the FT, the supposed deal would reduce US tariffs on EU goods to 15%, similar to what was agreed with Japan earlier this week. Note that in subsequent comments, US’ Navarro suggested reports should be taken with a “grain of salt”. However, this hasn’t materially changed the tone for markets.
- There was limited impact from the July flash PMIs. The Eurozone-wide July flash composite PMI reached its highest level in 11 months at 51.0, above the 50.7 consensus and 50.6 prior. However, some of the details were still weak. Overall, the report feels consistent with market expectations for one more 25bp this cycle.
- German yields are 1-2.5bps higher, with the curve lightly bear flattening. The multi-month range (loosely 2.40-2.75%) in German 10s remains intact, benchmark last 2.662%.
- 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are within 0.5bps of yesterday’s levels, with early tightening fading as alongside equity futures.
- Focus turns to today’s ECB decision at 1315BST. We expect the communication to be as non-committal as possible, maintaining flexibility and buying time for a fresh forecast round at the Sep 11 meeting.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
BOE: Huge number of MPC speakers today (Greene next at 10:30BST)
There are a huge number of MPC members speaking over the next few days that could shed a little more light on the MPC's thinking following the June meeting - particularly on their individual views on recent labour market developments.
- Megan Greene will speak at 10:30BST today at NIESR in a speech entitled "Monetary policy implications of differences in central bank balance sheet management". The full text will be available here. We don't think that Greene is quite as hawkish as she was previously and think she will be at least looking for quarterly cuts going forward. The balance sheet is growing in focus ahead of the September decision on whether to continue with QT or possibly slow the pace (without a slowing in total QT active gilt sales would accellerate notably). Any comments on her views on this will be watched closely, as will any labour market comments. We will also be watching to see if she uses the word "careful" again in respect of monetary policy.
- Also today we will hear from Deputy Governor Ramsden at the Barclays CEPR Monetary Policy Forum. He is expected to address for the first time the full rationale behind his shift back to being a dovish dissenter in last week's meeting. We have more on our view on Ramsden in our recent BOE Review here. Again, the text will be release here but given he has already dissented and if likely to point to the labour market this shouldn't be too market moving.
- Possibly the most interesting today will be Governor Bailey's oral evidence to the Lords Economic Affairs Committee which is due to being at 15:00BST (similar to the TSC for the Commons). This is very much dependent upon the right questions being asked, however, and there may be more focus on yesterday's letter regarding interest on reserves and the costs of QT than on monetary policy developments.
- Towards the end of the trading day, Pill will participate on a panel on the gold standard and Breeden in a fireside chat at the UK Finance digital innovation summit. Breeden often does not elaborate too much on her monetary policy views but given she now seems like one of the more dovish internal members, if she does speak on monpol this could potentially be market moving as she would almost certainly be needed to move to sequential cuts in September.
BUNDS: German Finance Agency Considering 50-year Bund
"GERMAN FINANCE AGENCY: 50-YEAR BOND NOT PLANNED FOR THIS YEAR BUT INTERNAL CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN CREATED" Reuters
We had noted the possibility of a 50-year Bund in our preview ahead of today - but thought it was unlikely to be introduced before next year at the earliest.
- This will be factoring into the latest sell-off in Bund futures and steepening of curves.
BUNDS: Largest Volumes of the Day goes through in Bund
- Largest volume of the Day is going through in Bund in the past 15 minutes, Schatz is now also sold in over 13k.
- Despite the German short 2yr Supply, the longer end lead futures lower, spiking the curves steeper.
- German 2s/30s test its highest level since the 5th June.
- Immediate support in Bund comes at 130.47, but most will be eying the 2.60% level.
Today, reference 130.57:
- 2.60% = 130.07.
