AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Focus
- RES 4: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing
- RES 2: 0.6625 High Jul 24 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6589 High Sep 5
- PRICE: 0.6559 @ 16:13 BST Sep 5
- SUP 1: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
- SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg
- SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16
AUDUSD traded higher on the soft NFP print. The current bull cycle highlights the end of a corrective phase that started on Jul 24. Resistance at 0.6569, the Aug 14 high, has been cleared. This exposes key resistance and the bull trigger at 0.6625, the Jul 24 high. Support to watch is 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. A clear break of it would instead resume a bear leg and highlight a stronger reversal.
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US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Sep'25 10Y Ultra-Bond Buy
- +3,500 UXYU5 114-12, buy through 114-11.5 post time offer at 1512:00ET, DV01 $305,000.
- The 10Y ultra contract trades 114-11.5 last (-5.5)
BOC: Bank Of Canada 2026 Meeting Calendar Released
The Bank of Canada has released its 2026 interest rate decision schedule (link here, all rate announcements will be on Wednesdays at 0945ET):
- January 28 (with Monetary Policy Report)
- March 18
- April 29 (with Monetary Policy Report)
- June 10
- July 15 (with Monetary Policy Report)
- September 2
- October 28 (with Monetary Policy Report)
- December 9
Additionally the quarterly Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations will be published on the following dates (all are Mondays at 1030ET):
- January 19
- April 20
- July 6
- October 19
US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Call Sought, Rate Cut Pricing Firm
Call volumes remain strong in the second half, interest in downside put structures have risen as underlying futures remain weaker in Reds-Blues (SFRU6-SFRM9). Projected rate cut pricing gains vs. morning (*) levels: Sep'25 at -23.6bp (-22.6bp), Oct'25 at -39.9bp (-38.4bp), Dec'25 at -60.1bp (-58.3bp), Jan'26 at -71.4bp (-68.9bp).
- SOFR Options:
- -4,000 0QZ5 96.75/97.00/97.50/97.75 call condors, 8.75 ref 96.935
- Block, 10,000 0QQ5 96.75 puts, 2.5 vs. 96.855/0.20%
- +50,000 0QZ5 98.00/98.37/98.50 broken 1x1x1 call flys, 2.75-30 ref 96.935
- +20,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.75 1x2 call spds, 7.75-8.0 ref 96.27
- +8,000 SFRZ5 95.93/96.18/96.37/96.50 put condors, 0.75 ref 96.26
- +10,000 SHRH6 96.37 puts, 19.5 ref 96.48/0.42%
- +10,000 SFRQ5 95.81/95.87 put spds, 1.0 ref 95.94
- +5,000 SFRZ5 96.00/96.12/96.25/96.37 call condors, 3.5 ref 96.265
- +20,000 SFRZ5 96.50/96.87 call spds, 4.75 ref 96.255
- +5,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.50/96.75 call flys, 4.875
- +3,000 SFRV5 96.31/96.43/96.50 broken call flys, 2.62 ref 96.255
- +5,000 SFRU5 96.12/96.25 call spds, 1.25 ref 95.935
- -2,000 SFRZ5 96.00/96.68 strangles, 11.5 ref 96.25
- +4,000 SFRX5 96.25/96.37/96.50/96.62 call condors .25 over SFRZ5 95.62/95.857 put spd
- Update, over +10,000 SFRZ5 96.56/96.68/96.75 1x3x2 broken call flys, 0.5
- -4,000 SFRU5 95.75/95.81/95.93/96.00 call condors, 2.5 ref 95.925
- +4,000 SFRH6 98.00 calls, 2.5 ref 96.47
- -10,000 0QZ5 96.50/96.75 2x1 put spds 1.5
- +5,000 SFRU5 96.18/96.25 call spds .62
- +20,000 SFRZ5 99.00 calls, 0.25 ref 96.245
- +6,000 SFRU5 95.81/95.87/96.00/96.06 call condors, 3.75 ref 95.925
- +4,000 SFRU5 95.93/96.00 call spds ref 95.925
- Treasury Options:
- 5,000 TYU5 111.5/113 strangles, 28
- -13,000 wk2 TY 112 puts, 9 vs. 112-02/0.43%
- 3,800 USU5 105/USV5 109 put spds, 18
- Block 8,310 USU5 104/USV5 108 put spd, 13 vs. 115-28/0.08%
- +4,000 TYZ5 109.5 puts, 29 vs. 112-03.5/0.25%
- -7,500 wk5 TY 111.5 puts, 20
- 3,700 USU5 104/USV5 108 put spd
- -10,000 FVU5 109.25 calls, 13
- +5,000 FVV5 108.25/108.75 2x1 put spds 6 vs. 109-01.75/0.17%
- +1,500 FVU5 109/109.75 1x2 call spds 6 vs. 108-28.75/0.08%
- 2,500 wk3 TY 112.75/113.25 call spds ref 112-02
- 5,500 TYU5 110 puts, 2-3 ref 112-02.5
- 27,000 Weekly Wednesday TY vs. wk2 TY 112 put spds, 7 net on the 3 day package where the first leg expires today. Or possibly a 3 day roll where open interest in the Wednesday option is 46,380 - in which case - more to trade soon.
