AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Focus

• +3,500 UXYU5 114-12, buy through 114-11.5 post time offer at 1512:00ET, DV01 $305,000.
• The 10Y ultra contract trades 114-11.5 last (-5.5)

 The Bank of Canada has released its 2026 interest rate decision schedule (link here, all rate announcements will be on Wednesdays at 0945ET):

• January 28 (with Monetary Policy Report)
• March 18
• April 29 (with Monetary Policy Report)
• June 10
• July 15 (with Monetary Policy Report)
• September 2
• October 28 (with Monetary Policy Report)
• December 9

Additionally the quarterly Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations will be published on the following dates (all are Mondays at 1030ET):

• January 19
• April 20
• July 6
• October 19

Call volumes remain strong in the second half, interest in downside put structures have risen as underlying futures remain weaker in Reds-Blues (SFRU6-SFRM9). Projected rate cut pricing gains vs. morning (*) levels: Sep'25 at -23.6bp (-22.6bp), Oct'25 at -39.9bp (-38.4bp), Dec'25 at -60.1bp (-58.3bp), Jan'26 at -71.4bp (-68.9bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • -4,000 0QZ5 96.75/97.00/97.50/97.75 call condors, 8.75 ref 96.935
  • Block, 10,000 0QQ5 96.75 puts, 2.5 vs. 96.855/0.20%
  • +50,000 0QZ5 98.00/98.37/98.50 broken 1x1x1 call flys, 2.75-30 ref 96.935
  • +20,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.75 1x2 call spds, 7.75-8.0 ref 96.27
  • +8,000 SFRZ5 95.93/96.18/96.37/96.50 put condors, 0.75 ref 96.26
  • +10,000 SHRH6 96.37 puts, 19.5 ref 96.48/0.42%
  • +10,000 SFRQ5 95.81/95.87 put spds, 1.0 ref 95.94
  • +5,000 SFRZ5 96.00/96.12/96.25/96.37 call condors, 3.5 ref 96.265
  • +20,000 SFRZ5 96.50/96.87 call spds, 4.75 ref 96.255
  • +5,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.50/96.75 call flys, 4.875
  • +3,000 SFRV5 96.31/96.43/96.50 broken call flys, 2.62 ref 96.255
  • +5,000 SFRU5 96.12/96.25 call spds, 1.25 ref 95.935
  • -2,000 SFRZ5 96.00/96.68 strangles, 11.5 ref 96.25
  • +4,000 SFRX5 96.25/96.37/96.50/96.62 call condors .25 over SFRZ5 95.62/95.857 put spd
  • Update, over +10,000 SFRZ5 96.56/96.68/96.75 1x3x2 broken call flys, 0.5
  • -4,000 SFRU5 95.75/95.81/95.93/96.00 call condors, 2.5 ref 95.925
  • +4,000 SFRH6 98.00 calls, 2.5 ref 96.47
  • -10,000 0QZ5 96.50/96.75 2x1 put spds 1.5
  • +5,000 SFRU5 96.18/96.25 call spds .62
  • +20,000 SFRZ5 99.00 calls, 0.25 ref 96.245
  • +6,000 SFRU5 95.81/95.87/96.00/96.06 call condors, 3.75 ref 95.925
  • +4,000 SFRU5 95.93/96.00 call spds ref 95.925
• Treasury Options:
  • 5,000 TYU5 111.5/113 strangles, 28
  • -13,000 wk2 TY 112 puts, 9 vs. 112-02/0.43%
  • 3,800 USU5 105/USV5 109 put spds, 18
  • Block 8,310 USU5 104/USV5 108 put spd, 13 vs. 115-28/0.08%
  • +4,000 TYZ5 109.5 puts, 29 vs. 112-03.5/0.25%
  • -7,500 wk5 TY 111.5 puts, 20
  • 3,700 USU5 104/USV5 108 put spd
  • -10,000 FVU5 109.25 calls, 13
  • +5,000 FVV5 108.25/108.75 2x1 put spds 6 vs. 109-01.75/0.17%
  • +1,500 FVU5 109/109.75 1x2 call spds 6 vs. 108-28.75/0.08%
  • 2,500 wk3 TY 112.75/113.25 call spds ref 112-02
  • 5,500 TYU5 110 puts, 2-3 ref 112-02.5
  • 27,000 Weekly Wednesday TY vs. wk2 TY 112 put spds, 7 net on the 3 day package where the first leg expires today. Or possibly a 3 day roll where open interest in the Wednesday option is 46,380 - in which case - more to trade soon.