AUSTRALIA: Budget Likely To Show Higher Deficit & Debt Ratios Beyond FY2025
Mar-25 00:40
The FY2026 budget is announced at 1930 AEDT today and is widely expected to show deficits across the forecast horizon and an upward revision to the debt ratio. With an election due by May 17 and 33 days needed between the announcement and the vote, this budget is likely to include numerous sweeteners for voters, with a 6-month extension to the electricity rebate already announced (costing $1.8bn).
- The RBA will consider the details before next week’s meeting but they are unlikely to change the expected on hold outcome. It already revised up its public demand forecasts in February across the period to Q4 2026.
- Revised economic forecasts from Treasury will be included and are likely to include warnings that global uncertainty is particularly high at the moment and going forward.
- The government has also said that $2.1bn of spending will be either cut or reprioritised with $720mn of reduced spending on contractors contributing.
- The Australian notes that the opposition estimates that government spending announcements over the last three months amount to over $67bn. More than $9bn of increased funding for health including incentives for bulk billing and subsidies for cheaper medicines has been announced but spread over time to 2029. Cyclone Alfred relief will add to spending over the short-term.
- There is unlikely to be additional defence spending with around $1bn already planned to be brought forward.
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STIR: July Fed Cut Priced Back In
Feb-21 21:14
The next Fed rate cut is again fully priced for the July meeting, following a 6bp futures-implied move today on the back of soft Services PMI data exacerbated in the afternoon by a risk-off move in equities.
- This comes following a run of mixed-at-best data (retail sales, housing starts, various consumer and business surveys) in the last week and is the first time a July cut has been priced since Feb 7 (just prior to January payrolls data) - previously it was priced for September.
- There's now almost two rate cuts priced through the end of the year (47bp through the December FOMC, an increase of 9bp on the day), the most seen since Feb 5.
- For the week, implied 2025 rate cuts have ranged between 35 and 48bp (the latter seen in the last hour of trade)
- See our US Macro Weekly for more on what to watch next week, with PCE and GDP the data highlights.
| Meeting | Current FF Implieds (%), LH | Cumulative Change From Current Rate (bp) | Incremental Chg (bp) | Prior Session (Feb 20) | Chg Since Then (bp) | End of Last Week (Feb 14) |
| Mar 19 2025 | 4.32 | -1.5 | -1.5 | 4.32 | -0.9 | 4.32 |
| May 07 2025 | 4.25 | -8.4 | -6.9 | 4.28 | -3.1 | 4.28 |
| Jun 18 2025 | 4.14 | -19.4 | -11.0 | 4.18 | -4.2 | 4.18 |
| Jul 30 2025 | 4.07 | -26.2 | -6.8 | 4.13 | -6.0 | 4.13 |
| Sep 17 2025 | 3.97 | -35.7 | -9.5 | 4.04 | -6.5 | 4.04 |
| Oct 29 2025 | 3.92 | -41.2 | -5.5 | 4.00 | -8.0 | 3.99 |
| Dec 10 2025 | 3.86 | -47.3 | -6.1 | 3.95 | -8.8 | 3.93 |
US TSYS: Late Risk-Off Support Lends to Weak Data Support
Feb-21 20:29
- Treasuries look to finish near session highs Friday, second half support spurred by risk-off sentiment as wires recirculated report of a new Covid strain out of China with "pandemic potential" (SCMP).
- Tsy Mar'25 10Y futures climbed to 109-24 high (+18.5), still shy of initial technical resistance at 110-00 (High Feb 7 and the bull trigger); 10Y yield fell to 4.4042% low; curves mixed: 2s10s -1.123 at 22.205, 5s30s +.956 at 40.929. Heavy volumes (TYH over 3.3M tied to quarterly roll action, June takes lead next Friday).
- Early Treasury support triggered by weaker than expected data: flash S&P PMIs w/ composite at 50.4 (cons 53.2) after 52.7 in Jan, services (49.7 vs cons 53.0, after 52.9); and existing home sales were softer than expected in January at 4.08m (cons 4.13m) after an upward revised 4.29m (initial 4.24m). UofM data showed a worrying rise in long-term inflation expectations alongside a deterioration in consumer sentiment.
- US stocks fell hard, DJIA back to January 21 levels while SPX Eminis and Nasdaq withdrew to last Thursday lows. Trading desks also cited today's call weighted option expiration that has historically leaned toward bearish price action in the week after.
- Late weekend focus on German elections take focus over the weekend, before New Zealand retail sales and German IFO data cross. There is a public holiday in Japan Monday.
LOOK AHEAD: The Week Ahead: 2nd Q4 GDP and January PCE Reports
Feb-21 20:05
- The upcoming US economic calendar is backloaded, with the second release for Q4 national accounts on Thursday before the January PCE report on Friday. Real GDP growth is seen confirming what was at the time a softer than expected 2.3% annualized in Q4, whilst there will also be a first estimate for real GDI growth after 2.1% in Q3.
- Much of the relative GDP weakness in Q4 after two quarters averaging 3.0% came from a large drag from inventories. It should continue to show signs of robust domestic demand after personal consumption increased 4.2% annualized in the advance release.
- However, January’s monthly report is likely to show consumption got off to a much weaker start of 2025. Recall that retail sales were far weaker than expected in January as they slid -0.9% M/M (cons -0.2) along with an even larger miss for the control group at -0.8% M/M (cons 0.3) to more than unwind the previously strong 0.8% M/M increase in December. Early days for the Bloomberg consensus currently see real personal spending growth of -0.1% M/M in Jan after 0.4% in Dec.
- As for inflation, Governor Waller cited estimates for core PCE inflation of around 0.25% M/M and it likely rounding to 2.6% Y/Y with some help from modest upward revisions.
- Base effects will have helped it drop from the 2.8% Y/Y averaged in Q4 whilst recent run rates should look a little more favorable (2.1% and 2.4% annualized over three and six months assuming no revisions). Note that revisions will go back to Q4, reflecting the new seasonal adjustment factors for both CPI and PPI, but longer dated revisions will have to wait for the comprehensive national account revisions due in September.
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