AUD: Break and Hold of 6,000 in ESA Should Aid Further AUD Recovery
- As the dollar fades off the overnight highs, most major pairs are holding the bounce, keeping EUR/USD, GBP/USD closer to flat.
- AUD is the primary beneficiary here, with the pair pressing toward 0.6450 this morning to challenge yesterday's highs. The moves may be inconsequential on the week, with AUD/USD hugging the 200-dma (0.6444 last) but the currency is looking more constructive against the likes of JPY, CHF and EUR on the daily charts - against which the underlying positivity and re-correlation with global equities is aiding prices higher.
- Having bounced off pullback lows of 1.7248, EUR/AUD looks to have concluded the corrective bounce, with spot now through 38.2% retracement of the strength. A further stabilisation of global trade themes or persistence of legal challenges against Trump's tariffs would affirm the AUD profile, particularly if the E-mini S&P holds a sustainable break above the 6,000 handle.
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COMMODITIES: Medium-Term Bearish Theme in WTI Futures Remains Intact
A medium-term bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the recovery that started on Apr 9 appears corrective. The move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Recent weakness resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels, reinforcing a bearish threat. A clear resumption of the bear cycle would open $53.72, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance to watch is $65.59, the 50-day EMA. Gold continues to trade below its recent highs. The trend needle points north and the latest move down appears corrective. The retracement has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Moving average studies are unchanged, they remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The next objective is $3547.9, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 3231.3, the 20-day EMA.
- WTI Crude down $0.72 or -1.16% at $61.46
- Natural Gas down $0 or -0.12% at $3.333
- Gold spot down $28.82 or -0.86% at $3320.55
- Copper up $2.75 or +0.56% at $490.7
- Silver up $0.06 or +0.18% at $33.2441
- Platinum up $0.03 or +0% at $991.87
EQUITIES: Eurostoxx 50 Futures Maintain a Positive Tone
Eurostoxx 50 futures maintain a positive tone and are holding on to their recent gains. The contract has cleared the 20-day EMA and pierced the 50-day EMA, at 5101.76. A clear break of this average would strengthen the current bull cycle and signal scope for a continuation of the corrective uptrend. This would open 5165.00 next, the Apr 3 high. Support to watch lies at 4812.00, the Apr 16 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal. The corrective bull cycle in S&P E-Minis that started on Apr 7, remains in play. The contract has breached a number of important short-term resistance points. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA and pierced 5528.75, the Apr 10 high. The next key resistance is 5619.66, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this EMA would strengthen a bull theme. Initial key support lies at 5127.25, the Apr 21 low. A break would be bearish.
- In China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 1.76 pts or -0.05% at 3286.655 and the HANG SENG ended 36.15 pts higher or +0.16% at 22008.11.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 120.72 pts or +0.54% at 22386.98, FTSE 100 lower by 2.14 pts or -0.03% at 8417.02, CAC 40 down 7.59 pts or -0.1% at 7575.72 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 3.27 pts or -0.06% at 5170.64.
- Dow Jones mini up 77 pts or +0.19% at 40409, S&P 500 mini up 11.5 pts or +0.21% at 5558.5, NASDAQ mini up 46.75 pts or +0.24% at 19550.75.
EQUITIES: Societe Generale Risk Reversal
SGE (18/12/26) 28/60RR, bought the call for 0.27 in 1.5k.
