AUDUSD TECHS: Breaches Key Resistance
- RES 4: 0.6858 1.000 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 10 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6795 0.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 10 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 0.6759 High Oct 11 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.6723 High Oct 21 ‘24
- PRICE: 0.6714 @ 06:38 GMT Dec 24
- SUP 1: 0.6655/6614 Low Dec 23 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6576 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.6517 Low Nov 27
- SUP 4: 0.6466/21 Low Nov 26 / 21
The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bullish and a strong rally this week reinforces current conditions. The pair has cleared a key resistance at 0.6707, the Sep 17 high. The breach confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend that started Apr 9. Sights are on 0.6723 and 0.6759, the Oct 21 / 11 high 2024. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.6614, the 20- day EMA.
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EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C 24 November
Germany, France, Austria, Italy and Greece are due to sell bills this week. We expect issuance to be E21.3bln in first-round operations, up from E17.2bln last week.
- This morning, Germany will look to sell E3bln of the 6-month Jun 17, 2026 Bubill.
- This afternoon, France will look to issue up to a combined E7.5bln of 14/27/49-week BTFs: E3.1-3.5bln of the new 14-week Mar 4, 2026 BTF, E1.5-1.9bln of the 27-week Jun 3, 2026 BTF and E1.7-2.1bln of the 49-week Nov 4, 2026 BTF.
- Tomorrow morning, Austria will look to come to the market with E2.0bln of the new 3-month Feb 26, 2026 green ATB and E750mln of the 5-month Apr 30, 2026 ATB.
- On Wednesday morning, Italy will look to sell E7.5bln of the new 6-month May 29, 2026 BOT.
- To conclude issuance for the week on Wednesday morning, Greece will look to come to the market with E500mln of the new 26-week May 29. 2026 GTB.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Trend Condition Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 107.175 High Oct 24
- RES 3: 107.095 High Oct 28 / 31
- RES 2: 107.062 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 107.026 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 107.000 @ 06:21 GMT Nov 24
- SUP 1: 106.945 Low Nov 17
- SUP 2: 106.920 Low Sep 25 and a key support
- SUP 3: 106.900 Round number support
- SUP 4: 106.830 Low Mar 27 (cont.)
The short-term trend condition in Schatz futures remains bearish and the latest bounce appears corrective. Recent weakness paves the way for an extension towards 106.920, the Sep 25 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bear theme. Initial firm resistance to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at 107.062. A clear break of this average would highlight a potential reversal.
GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 1.3368 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.3284 38.2% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3272 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3167/3216 20-day EMA / High Nov 13
- PRICE: 1.3106 @ 06:30 GMT Nov 24
- SUP 1: 1.3038/10 Low Nov 20 / Low Nov 4 & 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.2971 1.382 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.2945 50.0% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.2877 1.618 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing
The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode condition and this continues to highlight a dominant downtrend. Clearance of the bear trigger at 1.3010, the Nov 4 / 5 low, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Key short-term resistance is at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3167. A clear break of it would signal a stronger corrective cycle.
