AUDUSD TECHS: Breaches Key Resistance

Germany, France, Austria, Italy and Greece are due to sell bills this week. We expect issuance to be E21.3bln in first-round operations, up from E17.2bln last week. 

• This morning, Germany will look to sell E3bln of the 6-month Jun 17, 2026 Bubill.
• This afternoon, France will look to issue up to a combined E7.5bln of 14/27/49-week BTFs:  E3.1-3.5bln of the new 14-week Mar 4, 2026 BTF, E1.5-1.9bln of the 27-week Jun 3, 2026 BTF and E1.7-2.1bln of the 49-week Nov 4, 2026 BTF.
• Tomorrow morning, Austria  will look to come to the market with E2.0bln of the new 3-month Feb 26, 2026 green ATB and E750mln of the 5-month Apr 30, 2026 ATB.
• On Wednesday morning, Italy will look to sell E7.5bln of the new 6-month May 29, 2026 BOT.
• To conclude issuance for the week on Wednesday morning, Greece will look to come to the market with E500mln of the new 26-week May 29. 2026 GTB. 

• RES 4: 107.175 High Oct 24
• RES 3: 107.095 High Oct 28 / 31
• RES 2: 107.062 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 107.026 20-day EMA   
• PRICE: 107.000 @ 06:21 GMT Nov 24
• SUP 1: 106.945 Low Nov 17   
• SUP 2: 106.920 Low Sep 25 and a key support 
• SUP 3: 106.900 Round number support
• SUP 4: 106.830 Low Mar 27 (cont.)  

The short-term trend condition in Schatz futures remains bearish and the latest bounce appears corrective. Recent weakness paves the way for an extension towards 106.920, the Sep 25 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bear theme. Initial firm resistance to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at 107.062. A clear break of this average would highlight a potential reversal.

• RES 4: 1.3368 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg    
• RES 3: 1.3284 38.2% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg   
• RES 2: 1.3272 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3167/3216 20-day EMA / High Nov 13
• PRICE: 1.3106 @ 06:30 GMT Nov 24
• SUP 1: 1.3038/10 Low Nov 20 / Low Nov 4 & 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.2971 1.382 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2945 50.0% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.2877 1.618 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing          

The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode condition and this continues to highlight a dominant downtrend. Clearance of the bear trigger at 1.3010, the Nov 4 / 5 low, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Key short-term resistance is at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3167. A clear break of it would signal a stronger corrective cycle.