GERMANY: Border Control Order Risks Difficult Conversations For Merz w/Polish PM
Bild reports that Germany's Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt has, on his first day in officee issued an order to halt all undocumented migrants at the country's external borders, even if they make claims for asylum. Bild: "In addition, Dobrindt – also today – revoked in writing a verbal instruction to the Federal Police from former Interior Minister Thomas de Maizière (71, CDU) from 2015. According to this instruction, "Third-country nationals without residence permits and who submit a request for asylum are to be permitted entry." Dobrindt has now stopped that."
- The order, intended to indicate that the 'grand coalition' gov't, headed by conservative Chancellor Friedrich Merz, will take a hard line on immigration, risks a tense meeting with Polish PM Donald Tusk for the new head of gov't in the hours ahead.
- Merz has sought to use his first full day in office to tout his commitment to European security with the Weimar Triangle alliance (Germany, France, Poland) leading the way.
- However, closing Germany's external border to undocumented migrants risks a rift with Poland, both on the issue of where those undocumented migrants end up and on the functioning of the internal market (given the importance of exports to Germany for Polish economy). Indeed, Politico reported earlier this week "“The current controls at the German-Polish border are already a problem for daily border traffic and the functioning of the EU internal market,” Poland’s chief diplomat in Berlin, Jan Tombiński,[said] “We therefore do not want to see a tightening of border controls.”
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SCANDIS: Riksbank Speeches Eyed Tomorrow As NOKSEK Pierces Support
NOKSEK extends session lows as US President Trump’s latest tariff threats against China weigh on crude oil and natural gas futures. The cross hovers just above support at 0.9147 at typing - the 76.4% retracement of the March 2020 – March 2022 bull leg.
- Beyond this level, there is little in the way of firm support until 0.8530 (March 19, 2020 low). However, the intraday lows between March 20, 2020 and March 25, 2020 (0.9083, 0.8866, 0.8739 and 0.8639) may be worth monitoring in the interim.
- In addition to now familiar tariff-related headlines, NOKSEK may be sensitive to tomorrow’s Riksbank speeches, with Bunge (0645BST) and Thedeen (1230BST) scheduled to speak.
- Although inter-meeting Riksbank speak often aligns with rhetoric in the latest set of monetary policy meeting minutes, the lower-than-expected March inflation report and fallout from Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcements could tempt policymakers into suggesting a future cut is more likely than a future hike (even if the base case is for rates to remain at 2.25% for now).
- Earlier today, Swedbank added a 25bp cut in August to their forecast, after previously expecting rates to remain on hold at 2.25% through the course of this year.
FRANCE: Bayrou Gov't Vulnerable To RN Backlash After Le Pen Barred From Running
As noted earlier (see 'FRANCE: RN Contemplating Censure Against Bayrou Gov't, Marginal Widening In OATs', 1214BST) the court decision barring Marine Le Pen from running for office for the next five years could pose immediate risks to political stability should the far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) look to actively oppose the minority gov't of PM Francois Bayrou in protest against the sentence. The Bayrou gov't relies on the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance and the RN not wanting to vote together in a confidence motion, as without support from both wings of the political spectrum, the required majority in the National Assembly cannot be achieved.
- As such, in each instance of censure votes being brought against Bayrou, the measure has only been able to gain the support of one or the other. The last time that the two sides voted together was on the censure motion that deposed the short-lived gov't of PM Michel Barnier in Dec 2024.
- On 15 April, Bayrou is set to unveil "the general framework" of the options open to the gov't regarding the 2026 budget. It remains to be seen what issue, whether budgetary or pensions related, could provide the spark that sees the RN back an NFP censure motion. In any case, President Emmanuel Macron would be in a difficult position, trying to put together a gov't that could fall apart either immediately or within months given that new legislative elections will be possible from July onwards.
