ECB: Bloomberg Sources Suggest Hike Discussion In Premature
First post-ECB sources piece coming from Bloomberg
- "European Central Bank officials expect the cycle of interest-rate cuts to most likely be finished based on the latest outlook for growth and inflation, according to people familiar with the debate"
- "Unless there’s another major shock, the deposit rate should be able to stay at 2% following eight reductions from a peak of 4%, the people said, asking not to be identified because the discussions are private. Any talk of rate increases was seen as premature, however. "
- "One policymaker cautioned that further easing is possible should inflation undershoot the target for several months. "
Doesn't seem like much too surprising in here - markets have already removed rate cut premium over the past few weeks, and President Lagarde's balanced and non-committal press conference suggested that she wanted to push back on the need for a hike debate. That said, ERZ6 fell about one tick following the story's release.
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US TSY FUTURES: Update: December'25-March'26 Roll Accelerates
Surge in Tsy quarterly futures roll volumes for December'25 to March'26 outlined below. Percentage complete still in the single digits ahead the "First Notice" date of Friday, November 28. Current roll details:
- TUZ5/TUH6 appr 84,500 from -5.88 to -5.37, -5.88 last; 4% complete
- FVZ5/FVH6 appr 312,500 from -2.75 to -2.0, -2.5 last; 6% complete
- TYZ5/TYH6 appr 212,000 from 1.5 to 1.0, 1.75 last; 8% complete
- UXYZ5/UXYH6 40,800 from 5.25 to 5.5, 5.5 last; 4% complete
- USZ5/USH6 39,000 from 11.75 to 14.0, 12.75 last; 7% complete
- WNZ5/WNH6 appr 45,800 from 9.75 to 10.25, 10.0 last; 3% complete
- Reminder, Dec'25 futures don't expire until next month: 10s, 30s and Ultras on December 19, 2s and 5s on December 31. Meanwhile, Dec'25 Tsy options will expire this Friday, November 21
GILT AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week
The DMO has announced it will be looking to sell GBP4.5bln of the 4.125% Mar-31 Gilt (ISIN: GB00BVP99673) at its auction next Tuesday, November 25.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Large Dec'25 5Y/30Y Ultra Flattener
Large flattener blocked/crossed at 1008:21ET:
- -20,000 FVZ5 109-12.75, sell through 109-13.25 post time bid (DV01 $855k) vs
- +2,500 WNZ5 120-12, buy through 120-11 post time offer (DV01 $465k)
