Bloomberg are next to send out their post-ECB meeting sources piece. At first glance, the piece screens very similarly to Reuters around an April cut being in the balance. Excerpts from the piece:
There is a little more colour on the tensions between hawks and doves in BBG's write-up compared to Reuter's reporting. A reminder that Reuters noted that "the sources, who represent both the dovish and hawkish camps in the Governing Council, agreed that the ECB was unlikely to leave its deposit rate at 2.5% and more cuts were warranted, at least based on information available today." Fairly contained reaction in ERZ5 at typing.
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
• It would be a huge surprise to the market if this week’s MPC meeting delivered anything other than a 25bp cut to bring Bank Rate to 4.50%.
• The bar is also high for forward guidance to be meaningfully tweaked. We would be surprised if the vote split wasn’t 8-1 (also the base case for 18/22 sellside previews we read), although there are risks around the vote, particularly from the Agents’ Pay Survey.
• The Agents'; Pay Survey is the single measure with the most potential to cause surprises overall, both this week (to MPR projections, the vote split etc) and to future policy.
• We look at how data has evolved, expectations for the MPR projections as well as summarising over 20 sellside views.
FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK: MNI BoE Preview - Feb25.pdf
Date | GMT/Local | Period | Country | Release | Prior | Consensus | |
05/02/2025 | 0030/0930 | Jan | JP | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | -- | -- | |
05/02/2025 | 0030/0930 | Jan | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Composite PMI | -- | -- | |
05/02/2025 | 0145/0945 | Jan | CN | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | -- | -- | |
05/02/2025 | 0145/0945 | Jan | CN | S&P Global Final China Composite PMI | -- | -- | |
05/02/2025 | 0745/0845 | Dec | FR | Industrial Production m/m | 0.2 | 0.2 | % |
05/02/2025 | 0745/0845 | Dec | FR | Industrial Production y/y | -1.1 | -- | % |
05/02/2025 | 0745/0845 | Dec | FR | Manufacturing Prod m/m | 0.2 | -- | % |
05/02/2025 | 0745/0845 | Dec | FR | Manufacturing Prod y/y | -1.5 | -- | % |
05/02/2025 | 0815/0915 | Jan | ES | S&P Global Services PMI | -- | -- | |
05/02/2025 | 0815/0915 | Jan | ES | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) | -- | -- | |
05/02/2025 | 0845/0945 | Jan | IT | S&P Global Services PMI | -- | -- | |
05/02/2025 | 0845/0945 | Jan | IT | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) | -- | -- | |
05/02/2025 | 0850/0950 | Jan | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | -- | -- | |
05/02/2025 | 0850/0950 | Jan | FR | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) | -- | -- | |
05/02/2025 | 0855/0955 | Jan | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | -- | -- | |
05/02/2025 | 0855/0955 | Jan | DE | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) | -- | -- | |
05/02/2025 | 0900/1000 | Dec | IT | Retail Sales m/m | -- | -- | % |
05/02/2025 | 0900/1000 | Dec | IT | Retail Sales y/y nsa | -- | -- | % |
05/02/2025 | 0900/1000 | Jan | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | -- | -- | |
05/02/2025 | 0900/1000 | Jan | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (f) | -- | -- | |
05/02/2025 | 0930/0930 | Jan | UK | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | -- | -- | |
05/02/2025 | 0930/0930 | Jan | UK | S&P / CIPS UK Final Comp PMI | -- | -- | |
05/02/2025 | 1000/1100 | Dec | EU | PPI m/m | 1.6 | -- | % |
05/02/2025 | 1000/1100 | Dec | EU | PPI y/y | -1.2 | -- | % |
05/02/2025 | 1200/0700 | 31-Jan | US | MBA Mortgage Applications w/w | -2 | -- | % |
05/02/2025 | 1315/0815 | Jan | US | ADP Private Payrolls | 122 | 153 | (k) |
05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Dec | CA | Prev Trade Balance, Rev | -- | -- | CAD (b) |
05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Dec | CA | Trade Balance | -0.32 | 0.38 | CAD (b) |
05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Dec | CA | Prev Trade Balance, Rev | -- | -- | CAD (b) |
05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Dec | CA | Trade Balance | -0.32 | 0.38 | CAD (b) |
05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Dec | US | Previous Trade Deficit Revised | -- | -- | USD (b) |
05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Dec | US | Trade Balance | -78.2 | -83.9 | USD (b) |
05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Q1 | US | Ave Month 10Y for Upcoming Qtr | -- | -- | USD (b) |
05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Q1 | US | Ave Month 20Y for Upcoming Qtr | -- | -- | USD (b) |
05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Q1 | US | Ave Month 30Y for Upcoming Qtr | -- | -- | USD (b) |
05/02/2025 | 1445/0945 | Jan | US | S&P Global Services Index (f) | 52.8 | -- | |
05/02/2025 | 1445/0945 | Jan | US | S&P Global US Final Comp PMI | 55.4 | -- | |
05/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | Jan | US | ISM Services Employment Index | 51.4 | -- | |
05/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | Jan | US | ISM Services Index | 54.1 | 54.4 | |
05/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | Jan | US | ISM Services New Orders | 54.2 | -- | |
05/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | Jan | US | ISM Services Prices Index | 64.4 | -- | |
05/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | Q4 | US | housing vacancies rate | 1 | -- | % |
05/02/2025 | 1530/1030 | 31-Jan | US | Crude Oil Stocks ex. SPR w/w | -- | -- | bbl (m) |
05/02/2025 | 1530/1030 | 31-Jan | US | Distillate Stocks w/w change | -- | -- | bbl (m) |
05/02/2025 | 1530/1030 | 31-Jan | US | Gasoline Stocks w/w change | -- | -- | bbl (m) |
06/02/2025 | 0030/1130 | Dec | AU | Trade Balance | -- | -- | AUD (m) |
06/02/2025 | 0645/0745 | Jan | CH | Unemployment Rate | 2.6 | 2.6 | % |
06/02/2025 | 0645/0745 | Jan | CH | Unemployment m/m | 7.6 | -- | % |
06/02/2025 | 0645/0745 | Jan | CH | Unemployment y/y | 21.9 | -- | % |
06/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | Dec | DE | Manufacturing Orders m/m | -5.4 | 2.5 | % |
06/02/2025 | 0830/0930 | Jan | EU | S&P Global Construction PMI | -- | -- | |
06/02/2025 | 0930/0930 | Jan | UK | S&P Global Construction PMI | -- | -- | |
06/02/2025 | 1000/1100 | Dec | EU | Retail Sales m/m | 0.1 | -- | % |
06/02/2025 | 1000/1100 | Dec | EU | Retail Sales y/y wda | 1.2 | -- | % |
06/02/2025 | 1200/1200 | UK | Bank of England Bank Rate | 4.75 | -- | % | |
06/02/2025 | 1200/1200 | UK | Bank of England Bank Rate | 4.75 | -- | % | |
06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | 01-Feb | US | Continuing Claims | 1858 | -- | (k) |
06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | 01-Feb | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 207 | 215 | (k) |
06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | 01-Feb | US | Prev Continuing Claims, Rev | -- | -- | (k) |
06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | 01-Feb | US | Prev Initial Jobless Claims, Rev | -- | -- | (k) |
06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | 30-Jan | US | Corn Net Sales | -- | -- | MT (k) |
06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | 30-Jan | US | Corn Weekly Exports | -- | -- | MT (k) |
06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | 30-Jan | US | Soy Net Sales | -- | -- | MT (k) |
06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | 30-Jan | US | Soy Weekly Exports | -- | -- | MT (k) |
06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | 30-Jan | US | Wheat Net Sales | -- | -- | MT (k) |
06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | 30-Jan | US | Wheat Weekly Exports | -- | -- | MT (k) |
06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Q4 | US | Non-Farm Productivity (p) | 2.2 | 1.8 | % |
06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Q4 | US | Previous Non-Farm Productivity Revised | -- | -- | % |
06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Q4 | US | Previous Non-Farm Productivity Unit Labor Revised | -- | -- | % |
06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Q4 | US | Unit Labor Costs (p) | 0.8 | 3.5 | % |
06/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | Jan | CA | Ivey PMI (SA) | 54.7 | -- | |
06/02/2025 | 1530/1030 | 31-Jan | US | Natural Gas Stocks w/w | -- | -- | Bcf |
06/02/2025 | 1630/1130 | 07-Feb | US | Bid to Cover Ratio | -- | -- | |
06/02/2025 | 1630/1130 | 07-Feb | US | Bid to Cover Ratio | -- | -- | |
06/02/2025 | 1900/1400 | MX | Interest Rate | 10 | 9.5 | % | |
07/02/2025 | 2330/0830 | Jan | JP | Household spending y/y | -- | -- | % |
07/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | Dec | DE | Trade balance exports m/m | 2.1 | -- | % |
07/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | Dec | DE | Trade balance imports m/m | -3.3 | -- | % |
07/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | Dec | DE | Trade balance m/m | 19.7 | 17 | E (b) |
07/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | Dec | DE | Industrial Production m/m | -- | -0.3 | % |
07/02/2025 | 0745/0845 | Dec | FR | Foreign Trade | -- | -- | E (b) |
07/02/2025 | 0800/0900 | Dec | ES | Industrial Production y/y | -- | -- | % |
07/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Jan | CA | Employment Change | 90.9 | -- | (k) |
07/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Jan | CA | Unemployment Rate | 6.7 | -- | % |
07/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Jan | US | Average Hourly Earnings y/y, current month | 3.9 | 3.8 | % |
07/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Jan | US | Average Hourly Earnings, m/m | 0.3 | 0.3 | % |
07/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Jan | US | Average Workweek, All Workers | 34.3 | 34.3 | hrs |
07/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Jan | US | Nonfarm Payrolls | 256 | 160 | (k) |
07/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Jan | US | Prev Nonfarm Payrolls, Rev | -- | -- | (k) |
07/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Jan | US | Private Payrolls | 223 | 135 | (k) |
07/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Jan | US | Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.1 | % |
07/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Jan | US | Unemployment Rate (3 dp) | 4.086 | -- | % |
07/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | Dec | US | Wholesale Inventories m/m | -0.2 | -- | % |
07/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | Dec | US | Wholesale Sales m/m | 0.6 | -- | % |
07/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | Jan | US | U. Mich Consumer Expectations | 69.3 | -- | |
07/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | Jan | US | U. Mich Consumer Sentiment | 71.1 | -- | |
07/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | Jan | US | U. Mich Current Economic Conditions | 74 | -- | |
07/02/2025 | 1800/1300 | 07-Feb | US | Baker Hughes Canada Gas Rig Count | -- | -- | |
07/02/2025 | 1800/1300 | 07-Feb | US | Baker Hughes Canada Oil Rig Count | -- | -- | |
07/02/2025 | 1800/1300 | 07-Feb | US | Baker Hughes Canada Rig Count | -- | -- | |
07/02/2025 | 1800/1300 | 07-Feb | US | Baker Hughes US Gas Rig Count | -- | -- | |
07/02/2025 | 1800/1300 | 07-Feb | US | Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count | -- | -- | |
07/02/2025 | 1800/1300 | 07-Feb | US | Baker Hughes US Rig Count | -- | -- | |
07/02/2025 | 2000/1500 | Dec | US | Consumer Credit m/m | -7.5 | 10.5 | USD (b) |
09/02/2025 | 0130/0930 | Jan | CN | CPI y/y | -- | -- | % |
09/02/2025 | 0130/0930 | Jan | CN | PPI y/y | -- | -- | % |
10/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | Jan | NO | CPI m/m | -0.1 | -- | % |
10/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | Jan | NO | CPI y/y | 2.2 | -- | % |
10/02/2025 | - | Jan | CN | M2 YTD y/y | -- | -- | % |
10/02/2025 | - | Jan | CN | New Loans | -- | -- | CNY (t) |
10/02/2025 | - | Q4 | CN | Social Financing | -- | -- | CNY (t) |
10/02/2025 | 1600/1100 | Feb | US | NY Fed 1y Cons Infl Exp (med) | -- | -- | % |
10/02/2025 | 1600/1100 | Feb | US | NY Fed 3y Cons Infl Exp (med) | -- | -- | % |
10/02/2025 | 1600/1100 | Feb | US | NY Fed 5y Cons Infl Exp (med) | -- | -- | % |
11/02/2025 | 0001/0001 | Jan | UK | BRC Like-for-Like Sales y/y | 3.1 | -- | % |
11/02/2025 | 0001/0001 | Jan | UK | BRC Total Sales y/y | 3.2 | -- | % |
11/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | Jan | NO | GDP M/M | -- | -- | % |
11/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | Jan | NO | GDP Mainland M/M | -- | -- | % |
11/02/2025 | 1100/0600 | Jan | US | NFIB Small Business Index | -- | -- | |
11/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Dec | CA | Building Permits | -- | -- | % |
11/02/2025 | 1355/0855 | 08-Feb | US | Redbook Retail Sales y/y (month) | -- | -- | % |
11/02/2025 | 1355/0855 | 08-Feb | US | Redbook Retail Sales y/y (week) | -- | -- | % |
11/02/2025 | 1700/1200 | 15/16 | US | Corn Ending Stocks current year | -- | -- | (m) |
11/02/2025 | 1700/1200 | 15/16 | US | Corn Production current year | -- | -- | (m) |
11/02/2025 | 1700/1200 | 15/16 | US | Corn yield per acre current year | -- | -- | |
11/02/2025 | 1700/1200 | 15/16 | US | Cotton Ending Stocks current year | -- | -- | (m) |
11/02/2025 | 1700/1200 | 15/16 | US | Cotton Production current year | -- | -- | (m) |
11/02/2025 | 1700/1200 | 15/16 | US | Soybeans - Ending Stocks current year | -- | -- | (m) |
11/02/2025 | 1700/1200 | 15/16 | US | Soybeans Production current year | -- | -- | (m) |
11/02/2025 | 1700/1200 | 15/16 | US | Soybeans yield per acre current year | -- | -- | |
11/02/2025 | 1700/1200 | 15/16 | US | Wheat - Ending Stocks current year | -- | -- | (m) |
11/02/2025 | 1700/1200 | 15/16 | US | Wheat Production current year | -- | -- | (m) |