BOBL: Block trade
Bobl Block trade suggest seller: * OEU5 3k at 117.59. This is followed by another 1.5k Cumulative,...
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STIR: Trendline Support In ERH6 Holds
Euribor futures are -0.5 to -2.0 ticks through the blues, unwinding a little of yesterday’s recovery. We wrote last week that ERH6 had bounced off trendline support drawn from the May 2024 low, and this level continues to underpin price action in the contract.
- Although the US-EU agreement struck over the weekend should reduce near-term trade policy uncertainty, a 15% near-universal tariff rate is still a net-negative to the growth outlook, and more severe than the ECB’s June macroeconomic projection baseline.
- The MNI Policy Team latest sources piece, released yesterday, suggested the ECB’s hawkish shift following its last Governing Council meeting is more limited than markets’ reaction would suggest, particularly given the weekend’s trade deal, Eurosystem national central bank sources told MNI, admitting that while there is a new mood music it has been overinterpreted…. sources told MNI there is still a strong possibility of a further 25-basis-point cut, even if most Governing Council members would now need to see a deterioration in the outlook for this to occur.
- ECB-dated OIS continue to lean in favour of one more 25bp cut this cycle, with 16bps of easing priced through December.
- Spanish GDP was stronger-than-expected at 0.7% Q/Q (vs 0.6% cons and prior). The ECB’s June consumer expectations survey is due at 0900BST.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Sep-25 | 1.885 | -3.8 |
| Oct-25 | 1.849 | -7.4 |
| Dec-25 | 1.762 | -16.1 |
| Feb-26 | 1.742 | -18.1 |
| Mar-26 | 1.710 | -21.3 |
| Apr-26 | 1.710 | -21.3 |
| Jun-26 | 1.713 | -21.0 |
| Jul-26 | 1.715 | -20.8 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance L.P. | ||
SONIA: Large Basis Trade
Large Sonia Basis trade, helps explain the Volume at that Expiry.
- SFIM7 10k at 96.42.
SILVER TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact
- RES 4: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 3: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 2: $40.000 - Psychological round number
- RES 1: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- PRICE: $38.092 @ 08:00 BST Jul 29
- SUP 1: $37.843 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $36.452 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $35.285 - Low Jun 24
- SUP 4: $33.967 - Low Jun 3
Trend signals in Silver are unchanged, they remain bullish. Gains early last week reinforce current trend conditions - the metal traded above resistance at $39.132, the Jul 14 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on $39.655 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $37.843, the 20-day EMA.
