BOBL: Blcok trade

• RES 4: 6610.98 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 6600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 6543.75 2.00 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing  
• RES 1: 6541.75 High Sep 5  
• PRICE: 6511.75 @ 14:40 BST Sep 9
• SUP 1: 6456.35/6371.75 20-day EMA / Low Sep 2 
• SUP 2: 6359.10 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 6313.25 Low Aug 6 
• SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1 and a key support

A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback has once again proved to be a shallow correction. The contract traded to a fresh cycle high last week, breaching the Aug 28 high of 6523.00. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6543.75 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is 6456.35, the 20-day EMA.

South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun is in Washington today to discuss an immigration raid at a Hyundai-LG battery factory in Georgia that prompted a furious reaction in Seoul, and threatens to rupture relations with one of the most critical partners in the Trump administration’s high-tech revitalisation programme.

• South Korean President Lee Jae Myung told a Cabinet meeting today that he hopes this "unjust infringement" never happens again.
• Seoul-based journalist Raphael Rashid writes on X: “Korea's entire media establishment across [the] political spectrum has united in unprecedented editorial consensus expressing profound betrayal, outrage, national humiliation, and fundamental breach of US-ROK alliance...”
• “The general sentiment: while Korean media occasionally unite on domestic issues, these are usually severely politicised. Here, the level of scorn spanning from conservative establishment to progressive outlets is extraordinarily rare. They are furious,” continues Rashid.
• Politico notes: “The raid last Thursday ended with some 475 workers, including more than 300 South Koreans, detained. Video showed some of them shackled at the hands, ankles or waist. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement said an ongoing criminal investigation led it to arrest people working illegally. Hyundai said in a statement that it was reviewing its hiring practices, including those of its contractors.”

The following table shows the unrounded estimates we've seen so far for August's various CPI readings (release is Thursday 0830ET). We will have more detail in our full CPI preview out later Tuesday.

• Bloomberg consensus is for core CPI to come in at 0.3% M/M rounded. Unrounded core CPI expectations suggest a slight skew toward risks of a rounded-up 0.4%, with an unrounded MNI median of 0.32% and range of 0.29% to 0.36%. That would be steady from 0.32% in July for the joint-highest M/M since January.  
• Early core PCE expectations largely align with core CPI views, ranging from 0.29-0.34% with a 0.31% median - pending Wednesday's PPI data which precede Thursday's CPI release.
• In terms of the category-by-category breakdown, supercore CPI is seen slowing from July's 0.48% (albeit there is a very wide range of views) with housing CPI seen relatively steady but upside pressure vs July in areas such as lodging and car insurance (airfares are also seen remaining strong).
• And core goods prices are roundly seen higher (had printed a below-expected 0.21% in Jul), with vehicle prices seen driving much of the upside, and tariff-impacted categories like apparel seen accelerating in the month.