EU HEALTHCARE: Bayer AG: 2Q 25 (BAYNGR; Baa2neg/BBB/BBB)
Neutral set of results. Guidance was raised slightly already.
- Sales €10.74bn +0.9% at cFX; -3.6% reported and slightly below estimates.
- Adj EBITDA €2.1bn -0.3% but well ahead of €1.89bn Bloomberg consensus.
- Adj EBITDA margin 19.6% up from 18.9%.
- Litigation costs were the main Special Items in the Adjusted figures with €1,679m in Q2. This was €1.2bn for RoundUp and €530m for PCBs.
- Net Financial Debt €33.3bn down by €3.4bn over the year.
- Crop Science sales grew +2.2% at cFX led by LatAm with Adj EBITDA +32.2%
- Pharma sales +0.6% with Adj EBITDA falling 17%. Nubeqa grew +50.5% and Kerendia +67.1%.
- Consumer Health sales +0.2%; EBITDA +15.4%.
- Guidance raise was announced on 1st August with sales €47bn at mid from €46bn and Adj EBITDA €9.95bn from €9.75bn. The increase in litigation provisions remains a drag.
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EURJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: 171.88 High Jul 19 ‘24
- RES 3: 171.28 1.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 2: 171.09 High Jul 23 ‘24
- RES 1: 170.73 Intraday high
- PRICE: 170.63 @ 07:19 BST Jul 07
- SUP 1: 169.32 Low Jul 03
- SUP 2: 168.09 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 167.13 Low Jun 20
- SUP 4: 165.84 50-day EMA
A bull cycle in EURJPY remains intact and the cross is starting the week on a firm note, trading to a fresh cycle high. 170.47, 76.4% of the Jul 11 - Aug 5 sell-off, has been breached. The break strengthens bullish conditions and signals scope for extension towards 171.28 next, a Fibonacci projection. The trend is overbought, a pullback would unwind this condition. Support lies at 168.09, the 20-day EMA.
BUNDS: The Tariif Deadline is at the forefront this Week
- It was just a 11 ticks range for Bund Overnight, and very little change regarding Tech levels.
- The German IP was a beat, was revised slightly lower, but not a known Market mover.
- The small downside 5 ticks flow in Futures, was more Cash related on the Open, and the German contract is back at session high at typing.
- The initial resistance remains at 130.80, this was close to be tested twice last Week, but held.
- Support area is circa 129.80, or the 2.671% Yield level, ahead of 2.70%.
- This is a much lighter Week on the Data front, there are no notable Data release for Today, the EU Retail Sales won't move the needle, and the US Tariff Deadline (9th July) will be at the forefront this Week.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Nagel, Holzmann.
BTP TECHS: (U5) Bullish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 122.71 2.764proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 3: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 121.26 @ Close Jul 4
- SUP 1: 120.09 Low Jun 23
- SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26
- SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21
- SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support
The trend condition in BTP futures remains bullish and short-term phases of weakness appear corrective - for now. Gains in June reinforce a bull theme and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the 122.00 handle next. Key support to watch is unchanged at 118.51, the May 14 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a reversal. First support is 120.09, the Jun 23 low.
