EU BASIC INDUSTRIES: BASIC INDUSTRIES: Lanxess (LXSGR Baa3[N]/NR/NR): 3Q24 Results
Nov-07 07:36
Small negative in our view. The improvement in EBITDA is welcome but FCF keeps leverage uncomfortably high, with a seasonally weak quarter ahead. Moody’s wants to see leverage towards 3.5x for the rating.
- Lanxess reported revenue 2.5% below consensus. Flat YoY, with volumes at +5% offset by lower pricing. Agro remained weak but other divisions saw a rebound.
- Adj. EBITDA beat by 3%, with margin 40bp ahead at 10.8%. That’s up from 7.4% YoY with lower input costs, better utilization and cost savings.
- FCF appears on the low side at -€14mn. WC increased, partly due to inventory build ahead of harbour strikes in the US.
- FY24 guidance confirmed. It sees increased macro uncertainty and softening demand in H2.
- We see adj. gross leverage around 5.4x pro forma for urethane systems disposal. It expects to repay the front maturity 25s with the proceeds.
- Webcast 12.00 GMT https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/836tjv36/
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EGB OPTIONS: Bund/Bobl flattener
Oct-08 07:31
Flattener via Option:
- OEX4 119.75/119.25ps, bought for 33.5 in 2.5k vs RXX4 134.5/132ps, sold at 110.5 in 1k.
GILTS: Recovering, Downtrend Intact
Oct-08 07:29
Gilts follow peers away from yesterday’s lows, with oil retreating from overnight highs and Euro Stoxx 50 futures trading lower.
- Futures trade as +30 at 96.66 after basing at 96.32 yesterday.
- The technical downtrend remains intact, with yesterday’s low protecting the 1.00 projection of the Sep 17-30-Oct 1 price swing (96.23).
- Bulls need to break the highs of the last couple of sessions (96.93/98.14) to start turning the technical tide more in their favour.
- Yields 2.5-3.5bp lower, bull steepening after yesterday’s bear flattening.
- 10s closed above the downtrend line drawn off the October ’23 high but have faded back below early this morning (line intersects at 4.196% today).
- 10s 1bp tighter vs. Bunds after the spread closed at fresh cycle wides yesterday.
- BRC-KPMG retail sales recorded the highest Y/Y growth rate seen in 6 months. However, there are still concerning trends under the surface.
- Meanwhile, the BCC’s latest survey showed business confidence slipping on expectations surrounding tighter fiscal policy and geopolitical tensions.
- GBP1bln of 0.125% Mar-39 I/L supply is due this morning.
Fig. 1: UK 10-Year Gilt Yield (%)
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
BONDS: Italian BTP tests session lows
Oct-08 07:19
- BTP is sold in over 1k at the lows, and is taking the lead lower in EGBs, heading for the initial support of 120.17.
- Looking at the 10yr Italian Yield, next upside target would be seen at 3.633%.
Today reference 120.29, this level would equate to 119.80. - ECB Kazaks "Data point to an October Rate cut", but "Inflation not fully defeated especially Services", seems to have limited some of the downside momentum for now, but the BTP remains heavy.
- Bund support is unchanged circa 133.37.
