AUDUSD TECHS: Fresh Trend Low
- RES 4: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 3: 0.6733 High Oct 13
- RES 2: 0.6591/88 50-day EMA / High Nov 7 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 0.6523/50 20-day EMA / High Nov 25
- PRICE: 0.6434 @ 17:07 GMT Dec 04
- SUP 1: 0.6399 Low Dec 04
- SUP 3: 0.6350 Low Aug 5 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 2023
- SUP 4: 0.6259 1.000 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bearish and Wednesday’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions, marking a resumption of the downtrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for a move towards 0.6350, the Aug 5 low and the next key support. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6523, the 20-day EMA.
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AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Flag
- RES 4: 0.6852/6889 High Oct 4 / 3
- RES 3: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 2: 0.6654/6696 20- and 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6619 Low Sep 11
- PRICE: 0.6582 @ 17:05 GMT Nov 4
- SUP 1: 0.6537 Low Oct 30
- SUP 2: 0.6508 Low Aug 8
- SUP 3: 0.6490 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
- SUP 4: 0.6472 Low Aug 6
A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair is trading just above its recent lows. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bearish continuation signal. Note that the pair has cleared 0.6576, the 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg. A continuation lower would open 0.6490, the 76.4% retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6654, the 20-day EMA.
US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: FERC Rejects Amazon Nuclear Power Plans
- Stocks have bounced off midday lows, S&P Eminis and Nasdaq indexes near steady while the DJIA continues to trade in the red late Monday. Little has changed since the last summary with Utilities and Communication Services sectors underperforming. Currently, the DJIA trades down 251.64 points (-0.6%) at 41800.92, S&P E-Minis down 11.25 points (-0.2%) at 5746.75, Nasdaq down 25.4 points (-0.1%) at 18214.46.
- Event risk tied to Tuesday's Presidential election and Thursday's FOMC rate decision has many accounts close to the sidelines, while the current earnings cycle still has a way to go. Expected after today's close: Diamondback Energy, AIG, Illumina, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Wynn Resorts and Palantir Technology.
- Independent power and multi-energy providers weighed on the Utility sector after the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission voted against a proposed deal for a nuclear plant to be restarted to power an Amazon data center: Constellation Energy -11.51%, Public Service Enterprise Group -6.52, Vistra -3.01%. Interactive media and entertainment shares continued to weigh on the Communication Services sector: Comcast -2.16%, Alphabet -1.01%, Paramount -0.96%.
- Conversely, Energy and Real Estate sectors led gainers, oil and gas stocks underpinned by a rise in crude prices (WTI +2.01 at 71.50): EQT +4.10%, Exxon Mobil +2.76%, Diamondback Energy +2.4%. Real Estate investment trusts gaining: Simon Property Group +1.68%, UDR Inc +1.62%.
FED: MNI Fed Preview - Nov 2024: Analyst Outlook
- (Note to readers: This update of our Nov 1 preview includes analyst expectations starting Page 28)
- Based on the 31 previews of the November FOMC meeting seen by MNI, analysts are unanimous that the Fed will cut by 25bp in both November and December. However all acknowledge uncertainties over the rate path in 2025, depending on both incoming data and the US election outcome.
- PDF Here (link)
