AUD: AUD/USD Range Bound, More Focus On Crosses Amid Yen Gains, GBP Weakness

Feb-06 21:30

AUD/USD tracks near 0.6285 in early Friday dealings, little changed through Thursday's session. Dips to 0.6255 were support in Thursday trade. Recent highs at 0.6297 remain intact, and we are tracking up for the week. Broader USD sentiment was mixed for Thursday, as GDP fell post the BOE decision, while yen continued to outperform. The BBDXY index is down a touch last 1297. 

  • Technically the trend structure for the A$ remains bearish. Monday’s cycle low (0.6088) confirmed a continuation of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A resumption of the bear leg would open 0.6045, a Fibonacci projection. Key resistance is at 0.6304, the 50-day EMA, and 0.6331, the Jan 24.
  • AUD/JPY once again tested sub 95.00 but found support. We last tracked near 95.15/20. Monday lows at 94.62 remain intact. Yen was up over 0.70% for Thursday's session, amid hawkish BoJ rhetoric.
  • AUD/GBP rose back above 0.5050, with recent highs just above 0.5100. A softer PMI for the UK economy, along with a moderately dovish BoE cut, saw GBP underperform.
  • In the cross asset space, most global equity markets were firmer, although EU markets outperformed the US. US yields ticked higher, up around 2-3bps across the Tsy benchmarks. The Bloomberg aggregate commodity index was up slightly (+0.16%), the metals sub index gained a further 0.58%. Iron ore is above $106/ton, fresh highs back to Oct last year.
  • The local data calendar just has Jan FX reserves on tap today. 

Historical bullets

FED: MNI FOMC Minutes Preview: December 2024

Jan-07 21:23

We've just published our preview of the December FOMC Minutes (PDF here):

  • The minutes to the December 2024 FOMC meeting (released Wednesday Jan 8 at 1400ET) should provide further context for what Chair Powell dubbed a “closer call” but ultimately the “right call” to cut rates by 25bp.
  • There are several elements to watch for in the minutes, including the degree to which anticipated Trump administration policies affected participants' forecasts, the shift in the perceived balance of risks, and how "close" a call it was to cut rates at all in December.
  • MNI's preview of the Minutes includes what to watch for upon release; MNI's FOMC Hawk-Dove Spectrum; key highlights of FOMC participant commentary since the December meeting; and sell-side analyst expectations.

ASIA: Coming Up In Asian Markets On Wednesday

Jan-07 21:11
2300GMT0700HKT1000AEDTSouth Korea Nov Current A/C
0100GMT0900HKT1200AEDTPhilippines Nov Unemployment Rate
0300GMT1100HKT1400AEDTIndonesia Dec FX Reserves
0700GMT1500HKT1800AEDTMalaysia Dec 31 FX Reserves

ASIA: Coming Up In The Asia Pac Session On Wednesday

Jan-07 21:07
2300GMT0700HKT1000AEDTSouth Korea Nov Current A/C
0000GMT0800HKT1100AEDTNew Zealand Dec ANZ Commodity Prices
0030GMT0830HKT1130AEDTAustralia Nov CPI
0030GMT0830HKT1130AEDTAustralia Nov Job Vacancies
0110GMT0910HKT1210AEDTJapan BoJ Rinban Purchases
0500GMT1300HKT1600AEDTJapan Dec Consumer Confidence