AUD: AUD/USD - Gives Back Gains Overnight

May-21 21:57

The AUD had a range overnight of 0.6431 - 0.6469, Asia is opening around 0.6435. US Stocks reacted to the break higher in yields and saw some reversion after its recent rally higher. The AUD struggled to hold onto its earlier gains as it drifted lower in the US session in sympathy with stocks.

  • “The White House raised pressure on lawmakers to pass Donald Trump’s tax bill, adding that a failure to do so would be the “ultimate betrayal.” House Speaker Mike Johnson said he had a deal to increase the limit on the state and local tax deduction, but some hardline Republicans are threatening to block the legislation.”(BBG)
  • “USD declined on speculation that Washington may press the case for a weaker US currency at a Group of Seven meeting this week.”(BBG)
  • The AUD/USD is looking comfortable in a 0.6350 - 0.6550 range. The AUD continues to hold up pretty well against the USD so If you want to express a short it looks best to do that in the crosses for now.
  • Expect buyers to be around on dips while the support in the AUD holds, a close back below 0.6300/50 would start to challenge the newly formed uptrend.
  • Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: none, Upcoming Strikes : 0.6375(AUD683m May 23), 0.6550(AUD529m May 23), 0.6510(AUD1.4b May 27)
  • CFTC Data shows Asset managers have again added to their shorts, while the Leveraged community once again reduced their shorts last week taking them almost back to square now.
  • Data/Event: S&P PMI’s
  • Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Hourly Chart

    image

    Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

Historical bullets

GOLD: Another Record High, Gold Surges Through $3400

Apr-21 21:41

Gold remained on the front foot through Monday trade, albeit in limited liquidity with EU markets still closed. We track near $3424 in early Tuesday dealings, just off session highs from Monday (3430.60), which was a fresh record high. Gold gained 2.92% for Monday's session with broad USD weakness, coupled with risk off in the US equity space driving gains. 

  • The RSI (14) on gold is in overbought conditions, last above 77, but we have been in this state on numerous occasions already in 2025, with the market comfortable buying gold dips. We have the 20-day EMA back under $3190. Lows from the end of last week were at $3284.
  • Topside focus is likely to rest on round figure resistance at $3500. Note Goldman Sachs stated bullion could hit $4000 by mid next year (via BBG).
  • US Tsy yields were sharply higher at the back end of the curve, the 10yr up 9bps to 4.41% in Monday trade. President Trump comments berated Fed Chairman Powell and reiterated a call for "preemptive cuts". This raised fears of Fed independence and added to the negative risk mood. The SPX fell 2.36%. 

ASIA: Coming Up In Asian Markets On Tuesday

Apr-21 21:13
0900BST1600HKT1800AESTTaiwan Mar Export Orders
0900BST1600HKT1800AESTTaiwan Mar Unemployment Rate
   China Mar FX Net Settlement 
   Malaysia FX Reserves 

ASIA: Coming Up In Asia Pac Markets On Tuesday

Apr-21 21:06
2345BST0645HKT0845AESTNew Zealand Mar Trade 
0335BST1035HKT1235AESTNew Zealand Bill sale