AUD: AUD/USD - Drifts Back Towards 0.6400 As The USD Bounces
The AUD had a range overnight of 0.6410 - 0.6449, Asia is opening around 0.6425. The USD rallied again overnight, possibly assisted by corporate month-end demand. The AUD was under pressure for most of the night before finding demand back towards the 0.6400 area.
- Bloomberg - “Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is facing a diplomatic dilemma with China over fulfilling his pledge to regain control of the Port of Darwin, which is currently leased to Chinese company Landbridge Group.”
- “Investors may consider buying AUD/JPY on growing Japan fiscal risks heading into July elections and as Australian rates look too rich into the July Reserve Bank’s interest rate decision, according to Bank of America.”(BBG)
- Most of the possible month end corporate USD buying would have been transacted overnight, but there could still be some residual to get done today.
- Expect buyers to continue to be around on dips while the support in the AUD holds, a close back below 0.6300/50 would start to challenge the newly formed uptrend. A break above 0.6550 and the move higher could begin to accelerate.
- Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6555(AUD389m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6400(AUD 786m June 2)
Data/Event: AU Private Capital Expenditure
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
CNH: CNH Lags Safe Haven FX, Bessent Says Up To China To De-Escalate
USD/CNH tracks in the low 7.2800 region in early Tuesday dealings, the pair comfortably off intra-session highs from Monday (near 7.3025). Broader USD sentiment faltered, with the BBDXY and DXY indices down around 0.50%, amid a bull steepening move for US treasuries, while lack of trade deal progress was also cited. CNH only gained a modest 0.05% for the session, so it lagged broader USD index losses. Spot USD/CNY finished up at 7.2874, while the CNY CFETS basket tracker edged up to 96.42 (per BBG).
- For USD/CNH technicals, current levels are close to where the pair has rebounded from in recent weeks and just under the 50-day EMA. The 100-day EMA is near 7.2750, while the 200-day is near 7.2535 and a likely more important watch point, as we couldn't sustain a move sub this support level through March.
- CNH lagged the safe havens in terms of JPY and CHF as Monday's session unfolded. CNH/JPY is back to around the 19.50/51 region, against recent highs of 19.7550. Monday's session saw more muted US equity price action, although we recovered late in US trade, with SPX close to flat, Nasdaq down slightly.
- Focus will remain on the US-China trade outlook, with US Tsy Bessent stating that there is discussions happening with the China government, but that it is up to China to take the first step to de-escalate (per BBG). This came after late yesterday the China Foreign Ministry denied that the two sides were discussing tariffs.
- The local data calendar is empty today, with focus on tomorrow's PMI prints. The official outcomes are due for April, along with the Caixin manufacturing index. Both manufacturing measures are expected to fall sub 50.0.
AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (M5) Within Range of Highs
- RES 3: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
- RES 2: 96.932 - 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 96.860 - High Apr 07
- PRICE: 96.710 @ 16:34 GMT Apr 28
- SUP 1: 95.900 - Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
- SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support
Aussie 3-yr futures continue to circle just below recent contract highs, having cleared resistance on the continuation contract. The rally has taken out resistance at 96.730, the Sep 17 ‘24 high. On the downside, any reversal lower from current levels would signal a resumption of a downtrend. A deeper sell-off would refocus attention on 95.760, the 14 Nov ‘24 low.
RBA: Kent Speech - On Australia's External Position & FX Markets
RBA Assistant Governor Kent will speak later today, 12:05pm local time (0305BST). His speech per the RBA website is as follows:
"Keynote speech by Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) – Australia’s External Position and the Evolution of the FX Markets – at Bloomberg, Sydney."
- Monetary policy may is therefore unlike to be covered. Note the next central bank meeting for the RBA is on 19-20 of May.
