AUD: AUD/USD - Consolidates Above 0.6500

For Richmond Services inflation gauges, expressed in one-year lookback terms, current prices paid jumped to 5.5% from 5.0% to mark a joint-17 month high; meanwhile prior prices received picked up only slightly (to 3.8% from 3.7%, around recent levels). 

• Conversely, expected prices received rose 0.5pp to 4.1% for a 6-month high, with expected paid steady at 5.2%.
• This stood out vs fairly flat readings in recent months, as well as the other 4 major regional Fed services surveys that all saw current prices paid gauges fall in October vs September.
• In manufacturing, though, current prices paid fell to a 3-month low 5.8% (7.2% in the prior 2 months), with received also pulling back (to 3.0%, a 5-month low, from September's 27-month high 4.0%). Expected prices paid and received (next 12 months) also fell 1.0pp apiece, to 5.0%/4.0% respectively.
• This stood out: only Richmond and Dallas saw prices paid diminish vs September (NY, Philly, KC all accelerated on the month).
• Overall we would characterize inflation in regional manufacturing as elevated but diminishing from 2025's highest rates, while services inflation has remained relatively steady but shows some signs of picking up.

• RES 4: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.6646 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
• RES 2: 0.6629 High Sep 30 & Oct 01 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.6586 High Oct 28
• PRICE: 0.6584 @ 16:05 GMT Oct 28
• SUP 1: 0.6440 Low Oct 14
• SUP 2: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
• SUP 4: 0.6357 Low May 12  

Tuesday gains in AUDUSD put the price through resistance into the 0.6574 key Fib retracement, tilting the near-term outlook bullish toward 0.6629 resistance. Attention remains on the Oct 14 reversal pattern - a hammer candle. It signals the end of the bear cycle that started Sep 17. The pair has traded through the 50-day EMA - a bullish development. Key support lies at 0.6440, the Oct 14 low. A break of this level would cancel the reversal pattern and reinstate a bear threat.       

The Richmond Fed's Fifth District sectoral surveys showed improvement in activity in October, but very divergent inflation sequential developments across Manufacturing vs Services.

• Starting with activity, the manufacturing survey's Composite Index showed a strong improvement in October to -4 from -17 prior, marking the best reading since February and much better than the -12 consensus expectation, albeit still in soft territory (the report characterizes it as "slow" activity). New orders picked up to -6 from -15 (joint highest since February) and employment and shipments rose, though expectations fell to -5 from -1.
• This was generally in line with other regional Feds that saw manufacturing conditions improve in October vs September (joined by NY, KC, and Dallas, with Philadelphia coming in weak).
• Meanwhile the Services Composite recorded its second-highest print (-1) since January, after an unexpected setback to -7 in September after what had been 4 consecutive improvements. This index reading was very slightly above the 5-year average for the index. Meanwhile the 6-month outlook deteriorated to -3 from -2, for a 4-month low but basically steady.
• Overall the improvement bucked the broader trend, with NY, Philly and Dallas services weakening in the month (KC also improved).