AUD: AUDUSD Above Key Resistance Level, Jobs Data Coming Up
The Fed kept the door open to further rate cuts after easing but the bar has been lifted and with rates now in its “neutral” range “additional adjustments” will be data and outlook dependent. One cut in 2026 remains in its projections. The tone pushed the US dollar lower with the BBDXY down 0.4% which drove AUDUSD above its 18 September high of 0.6660 reaching 0.6686 before moderating to 0.6676 to be up 0.5% on the day. Aussie did underperform most of the G10 though.
- AUDUSD broke through two resistance levels at 0.6654 and 0.6660 on Wednesday opening 0.6707, key resistance and the 17 September high. Moving average studies are now in a bull-mode position. It has found support from the hawkish shift in the RBA with the Board adopting a hiking skew at its December 9 meeting (see MNI RBA Review).
- The focus today will be on November jobs data. Bloomberg consensus is forecasting a 20k rise in November with the unemployment rate rising 0.1pp to 4.4% but analysts are split between 4.3% and 4.4%. The RBA looks at the underemployment & youth unemployment rates as well as vacancies and hours worked.
- AUDJPY finished flat at 104.20 off the intraday low of 103.73 reached before the Fed decision.
- AUDNZD trended lower through yesterday to 1.1475 and then stabilised around 1.1480 to be down 0.1%. It is currently around 1.1479.
- AUDEUR recovered from its low at 0.5696 approaching 0.5715 again. It ended slightly lower at 0.5711. AUDGBP spent most of Wednesday around 0.4990/0.4995 but then fell to 0.4976. It finished down 0.1% to 0.4989.
- Equities were mixed with the S&P up 0.7% but Euro stoxx down 0.2%. Oil prices were stronger with Brent +1.2% to $62.65/bbl. Copper is up 1.6% and iron ore is around $106.50/t.
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JPY: USD/JPY - Consolidates Gains Above 154.00
The overnight range was 153.89 - 154.25, Asia is currently trading around 154.10. The pair has consolidated its recent gains above the 154.00 area. USD/JPY found solid demand around the 153.00 area on Friday again and this return of positive sentiment has brought the focus back to the 154-155 resistance area. A sustained break above here is needed to potentially see the uptrend regain upward momentum, through here the focus would then turn toward the 160 area where I would start to become wary of intervention risks.
- MNI INTERVIEW: BOJ Dec Hike Needed To Support Yen - Sakurai. The Bank of Japan should raise its policy rate 25 basis points to 0.75% at the Dec 18-19 meeting, as delaying a move would undermine its independence and risk further yen depreciation amid pressure from U.S. funds, former board member Makoto Sakurai told MNI. Markets have priced in a 49.8% chance of a hike next month.
- Sakurai, who maintains close contact with BOJ officials since leaving the board in 2021, said Takaichi’s dovishness also weighed on the bank's decisions. “The BOJ might have raised the rate in October if the prime minister wasn’t Takaichi,” he said, adding that concern over government reaction likely contributed to the bank’s decision to stay on hold last month.
- Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: none. Upcoming Close Strikes : none - BBG.
- Data/Event : BoP Current Account Balance, Eco Watchers Survey Current
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
ASIA: Government Bond Issuance Today
- Hong Kong to Sell HK$19 Billion 182-Day Bills
- Hong Kong to Sell HK$65.365 Billion 91-Day Bills
- Bank of Thailand to Sell THB65 bn of 91-Days Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 181D SVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 32D SVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 92D SVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 365D SVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 273D SVBI Bills
- Malaysia to Sell MYR5 Billion 2035 Bonds
- MAS to Sell S$14.4 Billion 28-Day Bills
- MAS to Sell S$2 Billion 252-Day Bills
- MAS to Sell S$22.3 Billion 84-Day Bills
- Taiwan to Sell NT$20 Billion 30-Year Bonds
- Philippines To Sell PHP 7.5Bln 182D Bills (PH0000060394)
- Philippines To Sell PHP 7.0Bln 91D Bills (PH0000059917)
- Philippines To Sell PHP 7.5Bln 364D Bills (PH0000061350)
- Indonesia To Sell 2030 Sukuk Bonds (PBS040)
- Indonesia To Sell 2039 Sukuk Bonds (PBS034)
- Indonesia To Sell 2028 Sukuk Bonds (PBS030)
- Indonesia To Sell 2049 Sukuk Bonds (PBS038)
- Indonesia To Sell 2041 Sukuk Bonds (PBS039)
- Indonesia To Sell 25D Sukuk Bills (SPNS08122025)
- Indonesia To Sell 172D Sukuk Bills (SPNS04052026)
- Indonesia To Sell 270D Sukuk Bills (SPNS10082026)
ASIA: Coming Up in Asia Today
| 0200GMT | 0900HKT | 1100AEDT | South Korea Exports 10 day YoY NOVEMBER |
| 0200GMT | 0900HKT | 1100AEDT | South Korea Imports 10 day YoY NOVEMBER |
source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI
